Lena Mellin
Fingers crossed that 2023 will be better
The bright spots and the pitfalls – the whole list
Published: Less than 2 hours ago
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
COLUMNISTS
It feels good to leave a crap year like 2022 behind.
The conditions are there for next year to be a little, a little better. Keep your fingers crossed.
The 20s of the last century were called "the happy". People danced and partied since the end of the world war. A repeat is not in sight.
2022 is over and no one will mourn it significantly. It was a bad year, at least on a global and national level.
Unfortunately, the risk is imminent that 2023 will not be a bed of roses either. But some bright spots can nevertheless be discerned.
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP
The war. No one knows when it will end. But what is known is that the West will support Ukraine until the body parts burst. And that Ukraine is ready to die for its freedom.
But perhaps it should be seen as a slight clarification that Vladimir Putin recently called the war a war and not a "military special operation". So he could be about to move from an Orwellian parallel world and that can't be wrong.
But while the war is going on, and likely for most of the next year, it will affect us, emotionally and materially. And that in a negative direction.
Inflation. According to all available forecasts, the cost increases will be lower in 2023 than this year. But it will still be between four and six percent on an annual basis according to the expertise. Those are levels we haven't been used to for a very long time, with the exception of what was lost in 2022.
This means that, for the second year in a row, wage earners will receive reduced real wages. Regardless of how much next year's bargaining will yield, it won't swing up to those after-tax levels. It's impossible and the unions don't even demand it because it could fuel inflation.
Inflation that exceeds about two percent is harmful to the economy because it spreads uncertainty and that is the worst thing we humans know.
Unemployment. No one believes that the economy will grow next year. The forecasts say that GDP will fall by between 1.5 and 0.4 percentage points. The most optimistic prediction comes from the government.
When the economy shrinks, unemployment increases, these are communicating vessels.
Between thumb and forefinger, unemployment will increase from 7.4 percent of the workforce this year to close to eight percent next year. This also affects the economy negatively, as half of it consists of domestic consumption. If someone in the household is unemployed, the whole family holds on to the debit card more tightly.
The stock market. The Swedish people are extra sensitive to developments on the stock market because we save a lot there. Both for our pension but also for other things.
The stock market year 2022 was the worst in a long time. 2023 could be better because the worst worries have dissipated and the stock market - and its customers - like it.
So can we count on an increase? Really not. The only thing you know for sure is that the stock market normally increases by seven percent per year spread over an entire business cycle. So far this year, one of the Stockholm Stock Exchange's most common indexes has fallen by 15 percent.
Bankruptcies. In November there was a record number of bankruptcies. 774 joint stock companies were incorporated, the highest number ever. Higher than during the corona, higher than during the financial crisis.
- It will unfortunately be a challenging winter for many entrepreneurs, says Henrik Jacobsson, CEO of the credit information company Crecitsafe.
Businesses that depend on household spending in particular will find it difficult. During November, it mainly concerned grocers and car workshops. Trade in particular, which employs many young people, is facing a dark time as consumers choose cheaper and fewer products.
The interest rate. The Riksbank uses the interest rate to fight inflation. But before it is broken down to acceptable levels, households and businesses are squeezed from two directions, higher prices AND higher interest rates.
Most recently, the Riksbank tripled its key interest rate, which primarily affects variable interest rates. The new level is 2.5 percent, but the forecast says that interest rate increases should stay below three percent. This suggests a sisa increase this time at the next interest rate meeting in February. It can then, according to the Riksbank's own forecast, increase by up to 04 percentage points. However, most people seem to believe that the final increase for this time will stay at 0.25 percentage points.
The crown. As always in times of trouble, the krona has taken a beating. The value has fallen which raises the prices of all imported goods. Food, electronics, cars, industrial inputs and so on. But the crooked krone is good for export companies. Their goods will be cheaper.
At the end of December last year, one dollar cost SEK 9.04. Last November this year, the total was 10:56.
Predicting exchange rates is difficult. If the international situation calms down, you can expect the krona to increase in value. Otherwise, it remains approximately at today's level.
Electricity,petrol and climate. We can expect lower prices for electricity than in 2022. This is due to the massive set-up behind the goal of depressing prices and making the EU less dependent on Russian energy in both Sweden and the rest of the Union.
By all accounts, the reduction will be more extensive for electricity than for fossil fuels. The government's promise to reduce the blending of biofuels in petrol and diesel to the EU's minimum level will not be fulfilled until 2024, provided the EU gives its approval.
The high electricity and gas prices have a very negative impact on the climate at European level. Coal, coke and oil, which were just about to be phased out in the blink of an eye, are now returning on a broad front. This also applies to Sweden.
Several oil power plants are ready to start deliveries. The electric car premium has been scrapped, driving to work has been made cheaper with a new commuting deduction, money has been moved from railway to road maintenance and the green share in petrol and diesel will therefore increase. Emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by approximately ten percent. The price for that must be paid - but only in the future.
The politics. The government will be forced into a difficult balancing act. Between partly supporting vulnerable households and businesses in a difficult economic time. But without blowing up inflation.
Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) has already canceled most of the tax cuts that the government's three parties promised in the election campaign. But she has also not fulfilled the promise of a stop on tax increases.
The government is in power with the good memory of the Sweden Democrats. Without their support, the government falls.
So far, Jimmie Åkesson and his party's support for Kristersson's government is solid. But there may come a day when the party thinks they are losing more than they are gaining from the collaboration. Then the government sits loose. In that case, it has consequences. Higher interest rates, reduced value of the krone, for example.
Footnote: It's not all war and misery. In 2023 it is celebrated that it is 500 years since Gustaf Vasa ascended the throne. And that it has been 50 years since Carl XVI Gustaf did the same thing. Bowl!
Politiken. Regeringen kommer att tvingas till en svår balansgång. Mellan att dels stötta utsatta hushåll och företag i en svår ekonomisk tid. Men utan att blåsa på inflationen.
Finansminister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) har redan ställt in de flesta skattesänkningar som regeringens tre partiet utlovade i valrörelsen. Men hon har inte heller infriat löftet om ett skattehöjarstopp.
Regeringen sitter vid makten med Sverigedemokraternas goda minne. Utan deras stöd faller regeringen.
Hittills är Jimmie Åkesson och hans partis stöd för Kristerssons regering grundmurat. Men det kan komma en dag då partiet tycker att de förlorar mer än de vinner på samarbetet. Då sitter regeringen löst. Det får i så fall konsekvenser. Högre räntor, sänkt värde på kronan exempelvis.
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