The US presidential election
Kamala Harris' successful start does not guarantee election victory
Wolfgang Hansson
Updated 00.31 | Published 00.18
The Democrats' change of presidential candidate must so far be characterized as a success.
In just a few weeks, Kamala Harris has raised a lot of money and eaten into Trump's lead in opinion polls.
Even so, it is far from a given that she can defeat Donald Trump.
Quick version
Even if the transition from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris went sensationally painlessly, one must also ask why the opinion effect has not been even greater.
A new party leader or candidate usually almost always initially produces a rather large immediate opinion effect.
If Harris were a super-candidate, she should now be well ahead in the opinion polls.
Instead, her successes are rather modest. It can be interpreted as many voters are clearly doubtful about her.
According to the latest polls, Harris is very narrowly leading nationally, by less than a percentage point. Earlier, Biden was behind by two.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll puts her ahead by four percentage points in three key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In at least two of them, Trump previously led. Six wave master states in practice decide the election.
But all changes are within the statistical margin of error.
Trump still leads in the other swing states. The risk for Harris is also that the small opinion effect she had will gradually fade away until the election.
Her biggest challenge will be trying to keep alive the new energy and enthusiasm that her candidacy has given rise to.
Not seriously tested
The enthusiasm is not largely due to the fact that the Democrats have longed for her as a presidential candidate. It is more an effect of the relief the party feels that Joe Biden is no longer a candidate. Now they don't have to worry about their presidential candidate's age and mental abilities.
But Harris has yet to be seriously tested. She has not given any interviews or held press conferences where journalists could ask critical questions.
It's easy to forget that less than a month ago, Harris was considered a very weak card for vice president even within his own party. Had Biden announced in good time before the primaries that he was not running for re-election, Harris would have faced a number of strong opponents and it is far from certain that she would have emerged victorious from the battle.
Now she got the candidacy served on a silver platter.
In the rearview mirror, the short preparation may turn out to be her luck.
Donald Trump's camp is clearly nervous about the switch. Biden knew where they had. The strategy of targeting “Sleepy Joe” was proven and seemed to work.
Harris doesn't quite know how to handle Trump yet. He has questioned whether she is really black, he attacks her laugh and calls her crazy. But none of this has yet stuck with voters and become an effective tool.
That he falsely claims that the large crowds at her election rallies are AI-faked also indicates nervousness.
Harris' Achilles heel
Harris's main Achilles heel is that she has to take responsibility for Biden's policies. This makes her vulnerable above all when it comes to illegal immigration but also economic policy.
Biden gave Harris the responsibility of trying to bring order to the unregulated immigration across the border with Mexico. She failed miserably. Instead, the flow of refugees increased sharply.
For Trump, this is a winning issue. He has promised mass deportations of migrants if he becomes president.
Biden has introduced new rules that limit how many asylum seekers are admitted each day. But that won't be enough to assuage questions about Harris' ability to resolve the border issue.
Harris must do a much better job of selling the administration's economic policies than Biden has managed. Now, a majority of Americans think they were better off financially during Trump's presidency despite the facts to the contrary.
The economy is almost always the key to winning elections in the United States.
At this point, barely three months before the election, things are undeniably looking better for the Democrats with strong momentum for Harris. But there is a long way to go and a lot can happen.
The debates between the two candidates could be of great importance. It's the only time voters will be able to judge Trump and Harris on the same stage before the election.
So far, only one debate is nailed down, on September 10. But there may be more. Then it's up to Harris to perform significantly better than Biden did in the debate that sealed his fate.
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