lördag 17 augusti 2024

The Russian invasion.

The Russian invasion. The outside world's response
Information: The German government does not want to give new Ukrainian aid

The German government does not intend to approve any new aid packages for Ukraine, according to information provided to the Frankfurter Allgemeine. Due to austerity, there is no money set aside for new support in the current budget planning for 2025.

The previously clubbed support is expected to be paid out, but no new money will be pushed if the Ministry of Defense requests it, according to the newspaper. Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner is said to have informed Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about the matter in an email on August 5.

- From one day to the next, Olaf Scholz and his government freeze the economic and thus the military support to Ukraine, says Ingo Gädechens from the Christian Democratic opposition party CDU.

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The Russian Invasion|The Battles
Ukraine rejects "crazy Russian propaganda" about attack on nuclear power plant in Kursk

Russia claims that Ukraine plans to carry out a "provocation" by attacking the Kursk nuclear power plant or detonating a so-called "dirty bomb" in Russia, Sky News reports.

Ukraine dismisses the Russian statement and calls it "crazy propaganda".

"Ukraine has neither the intention nor the ability to carry out such a thing. Russia must stop spreading dangerous lies," says Heorhij Tykji, spokesperson for Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Russia has stated several times in the past that Ukraine has plans to attack nuclear power plants or to use dirty bombs - a kind of primitive radioactive weapon. They have not presented any evidence for their accusations.

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Sources: Secret plans for a limited ceasefire were found

There were advanced plans for Russia and Ukraine to send delegations for indirect talks in Qatar later in August, sources told the Washington Post. But as a result of the Kursk offensive, Russian politicians are said to have postponed these talks, according to a diplomat.

The goal of the negotiations is said to have been, among other things, to stop attacks on important infrastructure for oil and gas in both countries. The planning must have been going on for two months and only minor details remained when Ukraine stepped into Kursk, according to the source.

The newspaper notes that such talks would have signaled a clear shift for both countries, at least to achieve a "limited ceasefire".

However, Ukraine's presidential staff claims that the meeting in Qatar was postponed "due to the situation in the Middle East", but believes that some form of video call will be held on August 22.

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Analysis: Soon Ukraine will have to try to hold its positions

There is a limit to how far Ukraine can push into Russia. That's what Jack Waitling, who works at the think tank Royal United Services Institute, writes in an analysis in The Guardian.

Even before the offensive, Ukraine had too few soldiers, he writes. Therefore, the Ukrainians must soon start consolidating their positions and then try to hold them until future negotiations. He believes that the best possible scenario for Ukraine is that they succeed in this - and that the Russians suffer great losses when they feel compelled to retake the land.

In Foreign Policy, John Deni, professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, draws two conclusions.

One: Ukraine's offensive in Kursk could be part of a larger military campaign that could continue well into 2025.

Two: Ukraine this time seems to have actually embraced Western training and warfare. If these conclusions stand, the offensive could be a major turning point in the war, he believes.

But at this stage it is mostly a political gain, writes Ukrainian journalist Natlija Gumenyuk in Foreign Affairs:

"It allows Kyiv to speak to its allies from a position of strength."

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