måndag 23 september 2024

If this is not a war, then what is it?

Votes for Israel-Hezbollah
Analysis: Israel is playing high stakes – the rest of the world is preparing

Israel states that the recent attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon are a way to prevent the conflict with the militia from developing into a full-scale war. But such actions rarely work, writes CNN's Nick Palton Walsh in an analysis.

After the attacks of the last week or so, Hezbollah is badly damaged, both physically and psychologically, he writes. But if Israel enters Lebanon with ground troops, they immediately gain the upper hand.

"Israel hopes that Hezbollah will feel so hurt, and be so afraid of further civilian casualties, that they will retreat on their own," he writes, but calls the strategy risky.

Both Israel's allies and critics agree that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas would cool down the level of conflict. That's what the BBC's Jeremy Bowen writes in an analysis, but notes that it's still far off.

"Although Hezbollah is damaged, they have the capacity to fight back. So friends and enemies of Israel must continue to prepare for the worst.”

On Monday, hundreds were killed in over 1,300 Israeli attacks. Aftonbladet's Wolfgang Hansson asks himself the question:

- If this is not a war, then what is it?

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Expert: Hezbollah risks annihilation in a war

The Lebanese militia Hezbollah has a lot to lose from a full-scale war with Israel. Anders Persson, 

Middle East expert at Linnaeus University, tells SR Ekot.

According to him, the organization has suffered the "biggest defeat in its 40-year history", which makes many within the militia want to exact revenge.

- But if they are drawn into a full-scale war with Israel, the entire organization risks being destroyed, he says.

Hezbollah has the support of the regime in Iran. But Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm does not see Iran actively entering a war between Hezbollah and Israel as particularly likely.

- Iran is probably happy to fight to the last Hezbollah member, but I don't think they are keen to go in themselves. My guess is that you then end up in open war against the United States and then I think the regime is in a bad place in Iran, he says to TV4 Nyheterna.

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