tisdag 24 september 2024

The Israel-Hezbollah conflict

Israel: Hezbollah has responded with a record number of attacks

A record number of rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon during Tuesday. This is stated by the Israeli Defense Forces according to Haaretz.

The IDF states that it is about more than 300 rockets. It would be the highest figure since last October, when the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel flared up.

Hezbollah says, according to Reuters, that it has fired about 50 rockets at the Dado military base outside Safed in northern Israel.

The shelling comes after Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in recent days.


Analysis: Hezbollah's arsenal is much larger than in 2006

The Middle East is facing a very dangerous and fragile situation and may be on the way to major war, writes Sky News' Dominic Waghorn in an analysis. A central part is Hezbollah's weapons arsenal, which is believed to consist of about 150,000 robots, and whether it has the capacity and intention to use them, Waghorn writes.

"If the answer to both questions is yes, the region faces a devastating conflict that will send shockwaves across the world and engulf the Middle East in war."

The past 24 hours have been the bloodiest in Lebanon since the Lebanon War in the summer of 2006. That war cost the Israelis dearly, despite the fact that Hezbollah at the time "only" had 12,000 rockets and robots in its arsenal, writes Expressen's Mats Larsson. Israel's recent attacks have certainly knocked out a part of the militia's arsenal, but Hezbollah can probably still cause great damage on Israeli soil, he continues.

"But Hezbollah also knows that the price for such attacks would be very high."

Last week's attacks on Hezbollah also mean a deepening rift between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu, writes The New York Times' David Sanger. For almost a year, Biden has warned about the risks of a major war in the Middle East. With only four months left in the White House, Biden has now begun to realize that his time is running out, and that his chances of getting a cease-fire agreement in Gaza are slim, writes David Sanger.

"And the risk of a major war has never been greater," writes Sanger.

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Expert: A ground invasion could end in new Gaza war

The widespread Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets have forced the Iranian-backed militia on the defensive and demonstrated Israel's superiority in both technology and intelligence. But if Israel were to enter Lebanon with ground troops, the advantage risks shifting quickly, writes the WSJ.

A contributing factor is Hezbollah's huge arsenal of rockets, drones and anti-tank robots that they can use to stop Israel's advance. Among other things, they have recently received the Iranian-made anti-tank robot Almas, Persian for diamond. According to the newspaper, the robot has significantly higher precision than those used by Hezbollah during the 2006 Lebanon War.

The whole thing risks ending in a similar situation to the war in Gaza, says Daniel Byman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who has studied Hezbollah.

- It's a bit like saying to the US in the 1980s that "let's go into Vietnam again", says Byman, who previously worked as a political official in the US.
 

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