Wolfgang Hansson
Therefore, the sanctions have not put an end to Putin
Published: Today 10.44
Updated: Today 11.25
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
COLUMNISTS
When tough sanctions were imposed on Russia, the tail-wagging of Western leaders and experts was high. Putin would soon be forced to end his aggression against Ukraine.
A year later, the reality is different.
The sanctions have neither crippled Russia's economy nor forced Putin to stop fighting.
The failure has several explanations.
The EU will shortly introduce the tenth package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions are now so severe that it is difficult to find new areas that really hit the Russian economy and the Russian elite.
When the first were introduced immediately after the invasion, hopes were high that the Russian economy would collapse like a house of cards and Putin would be forced to end the war. In a few weeks, or at most a few months, the money for the war would run out.
Wishful thinking
But as so many times before, the belief in international sanctions turned out to be based on wishful thinking. Sanctions have not stopped North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons and Iran from continuing to try.
Nor will they force Putin to end his illegal war against Ukraine. But they give Russia's adversaries a sense of agency when they don't want to intervene directly in the war.
During the past 24 hours, fierce fighting has been going on in Bakhmut in Ukraine, reports Reuters. Photo: Libkos / AP
The International Monetary Fund, IMF, predicts that the Russian economy will grow by 0.3 percent this year. More than the Swedish one.
Of course, the sanctions have an inhibiting effect on Russia. Putin has a harder time supplying his war industry with modern technology from the West when semiconductors are no longer allowed to be exported to Russia. When the West stopped buying Russian oil and even put a price cap on it internationally, it reduced Russia's income. The fact that so many companies from the West have closed their factories and left the country for good hits Russian growth and tax revenues.
A Russian oil plant north of Moscow. Photo: AP
"Shelves full of goods"
But it is not at that level that the sanctions force Putin to throw in the towel.
This is mainly due to two things.
Sanction breaker
There are always countries, companies and individuals who make it a business idea to break the sanctions. There is big money to be made here. Russia can import most of what they need even if it will be a bit more expensive.
Some of the foreign correspondents still in Russia report how the shelves in the shops are still full of goods from the West.
None of the former Soviet republics surrounding Russia, apart from Belarus, are subject to any sanctions. For Kazakhstan, Georgia or Azerbaijan, no sanctions apply to imports from the West. They all border directly on Russia. There is every opportunity for unscrupulous businessmen to forward goods to Russia. Not least because the corruption among border police and customs officers is well-known.
The majority of the world's countries have not imposed any sanctions at all
In practice, only the United States, Canada, the EU, Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand have imposed sanctions against Russia. For the rest of the world, it is "business as usual" with Moscow.
Some countries have taken advantage of the situation and multiplied their trade with Russia. India has increased it by 400 percent and, among other things, takes the opportunity to buy Russian oil at a sale price.
Even Turkey, a member of NATO, has not imposed sanctions against Russia. On the contrary, Turkish businessmen are among those helping to circumvent the sanctions. Therefore, they leak like a sieve and are only partially effective.
For the sanctions to seriously hamper Putin's ability to wage war, virtually the entire world must support them, writes Wolfgang Hansson. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AP
Mistrust of the West
Europe and North America see the Russian invasion as an existential challenge to our freedom and our democracy. But the rest of the world looks at the war much like Europe looks at the conflict in the Congo or Somalia. A war far away among many others that affect us minimally.
At the bottom is also a high degree of anti-Americanism and a general mistrust of the motives of the West. Many buy at least partially Putin's view that it is NATO that provoked the war by expanding eastward and thus becoming at least a potential threat to Russia. You think you recognize a colonial mentality from the time when you yourself were exposed to the oppression of Western countries. Many have not forgotten the USA's illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Admittedly, there were 141 countries in the UN that yesterday voted to call on Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine. But there it stops.
Ukrainian soldiers fire the Pion artillery system at Russian targets in Bakhmut. Photo: Libkos / AP
Guns and money more important
South Africa, which Sweden supported for many years to throw off the policy of racial separation, apartheid, thinks it is quite natural to hold a military exercise together with Russia and China on the anniversary of Russia's invasion.
Since Russia trained many of the black human rights fighters during apartheid, the ANC feels they owe it a debt of gratitude. This is the case with many countries that have received financial support from Russia over the years.
In recent weeks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been welcomed in nine countries in Africa and the Middle East. In the West, Russia is labeled a plague, but internationally it is not as isolated as it is often portrayed.
For the sanctions to seriously hamper Putin's ability to wage war, virtually the entire world must agree to them. It won't happen.
This does not mean that they are ineffective, but in the Western world's toolbox, support in the form of advanced weapons and financial aid to Ukraine is far more important than sanctions.
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