Wolfgang Hansson
Updated 20.32 | Published 20.28
- The authorities' brochure on crisis preparedness is considered to have come with perfect timing, as Russia's hybrid war is already in full swing and is expected to intensify after Ukraine's ability to attack targets in Russia increases.
- Russia is accused of various forms of sabotage and hybrid actions, such as jamming GPS systems around the Baltic Sea, cyber attacks and suspected damage to communication cables, causing uncertainty and concern within Western Europe.
- NATO's newly appointed head warns that Russia may shift its frontline from Ukraine to Western Europe, and that Russia is using intimidation tactics, including nuclear threats, to undermine and destabilize the West's security and will to defend itself.
In fact, the war is already here.
The difference is that we do not perceive Russia's hybrid actions as warfare.
But we'll be seeing a lot more of them after Ukraine gets the green light to fire at targets in Russia.
Worry is a treacherous emotion. It kind of creeps on without us being able to control it.
So when Putin again threatens to use nuclear weapons after the decision of several NATO countries to let Ukraine use Western robots against targets in Russia, it is no wonder that many people become worried.
But probably we should worry more about the severed communications cables in the Baltic Sea and other similar suspicious hybrid attacks bearing Russia's signature.
We do not yet know for sure if it was the Chinese vessel now being shadowed by the Danish navy that cut two different Internet cables on the seabed a few hours apart. And if so it happened on behalf of Russia.
But it is clear that leading politicians in a number of NATO countries see what happened as part of Russia's hybrid warfare.
The broken cables are just the latest sign of Russia's hybrid warfare. Events that are likely to increase as the West becomes ever more deeply embroiled in Ukraine's efforts to repel Russian aggression.
Russian actions
Russia started this warfare even before they invaded Ukraine but since the start of the war has stepped it up. Here are some examples of suspected Russian actions.- The GPS systems around the Baltic Sea have been knocked out several times and affected the navigation of thousands of passenger planes.
- This summer, Western intelligence agencies revealed Russian plans to assassinate business leaders in the European defense industry, including the head of Germany's largest arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
- Russia has sent refugees towards the Finnish border in an attempt to destabilize Finland.
- Cyberattacks by Russian hackers have targeted the West to disrupt trade and payment systems.
- Cyberattacks by Russian hackers have targeted the West to disrupt trade and payment systems.
- Russia has provided Houthi rebels in Yemen with data to attack Western cargo ships in the Red Sea.
NATO chief warns
NATO's newly appointed head Mark Rutte warns that the Kremlin is about to move the front line from Ukraine to the Baltic Sea and Western Europe.Hybrid warfare is effective because it can be difficult to directly link Russia to the actions or because the Russians can deny involvement or claim that it was an accident.
Russia can use intermediaries. The vessel suspected of damaging two telecommunications cables last year was China-flagged. The same with the ship that is now suspected of having cut the cables off Gotland and south of Öland. Both came from Russian ports when the suspicious actions took place, but otherwise we know very little about the Russian connections. Which contributes to the uncertainty.
It's like fighting shadows.
NATO's collective defense mechanism, paragraph five, can also be triggered in hybrid actions. But since Russia would see it as a gross escalation of the conflict, it is something NATO would hesitate to do.
Scare tactics
Russia probably does not want a direct confrontation with NATO. Simply because, on paper, NATO is militarily far superior to Russia.The Russians' chance of success is greater with gray zone operations that open, democratic societies have difficulty protecting against. Not least, it applies to all the disinformation that Russia spreads in the West to divide and undermine the will to defend.
Intimidation is an important part of Russia's tactics.
Putin's rattle with nuclear weapons right at the start of the invasion on February 24, 2022 probably contributed to the US and other NATO countries hesitating how much they would dare to support Ukraine.
The Putins continue to use that card. The other day he signed a new nuclear doctrine that allows Russia to use nuclear weapons even in the event of an attack with conventional weapons.
The scare tactic still works. Yesterday, the US temporarily closed its embassy in Kiev and a number of other Western countries followed suit.
Putin announced this evening that Russia had sent a new medium-range ballistic missile against an alleged military target in the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. A robot that can be equipped with nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Putin said that Russia now considers itself entitled to attack the countries that have given Ukraine permission to strike targets in Russia. Read US and UK. The threat is the most direct that Putin has uttered against the West.
Few believe that Russia would really be prepared to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Militarily they would not achieve much and the price for Russia would be very high. The US has threatened a very strong military response.
But as long as we can't look into Putin's brain, the fear will be there every time he rattles off his weapons of mass destruction.
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