Now Trump is changing strategy to conquer Greenland

Trump's new strategy to seize Greenland

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 14.14

President Trump realizes that it would look very bad if the US tried to take over Greenland by force.

But that does not mean that he has given up on his goal.

Trying to incorporate Greenland into the US through influence operations feels like a completely possible Trump strategy.

At first, Danmarks Radio's information that the US is trying to infiltrate Greenland felt like something out of a spy novel. 

But if the information is true about American businessmen's repeated trips to Greenland and connections to Trump, it is not unreasonable at all.

It is even reminiscent of the type of hybrid warfare and influence operations that Russia engages in against Sweden and other European countries.

A military invasion is a costly and risky adventure. Hybrid warfare is cheap and easy to deny.

So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Trump, when he can't get what he wants with open threats, instead tries another method.

There is no doubt that he really wants the US to take over Greenland. For security reasons and to be able to secure the US's access to rare earth metals. Today, the US is completely dependent on China to get hold of these metals, which are vital for the technology and defense industry.

China is using them as a means of blackmail in the trade war against the US.

 

Iceberg in the sea off Sisoraatinik Arpaffik in Nuuk, Greenland. Photo: Johan Nilsson / TT

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly spoken openly about the fact that it is not only desirable but necessary for the US to take over Greenland.

He has even threatened to do so by military force if necessary. Remarkable to say the least, since Greenland belongs to Denmark, which, like the US, is a member of the NATO defense alliance.

Despite strong protests from the Danish government, Trump has continued to make his demands. Even though he has been quite quiet on that point in recent months.

Danmarks Radio's revelations may provide an insight into why.

They claim, with the support of eight anonymous sources, that at least three American businessmen have traveled to Greenland in recent months by shuttle service. There, they have drawn up a list of Greenlanders who are positive about the US taking over Greenland. They have also tried to identify Greenlanders who are opposed to President Trump. They have wanted to meet a number of politicians, businessmen and other influential Greenlanders.

The purpose is not entirely clear, but it could be about creating a popular movement to incorporate Greenland into the US.

Alternatively, to create a split between Danmark and Greenland. Which should not be that difficult.

There are several sourdoughs to exploit between the colonial power and the giant but sparsely populated island four hours' flight from Kastrup.

One such is that in the 1960s, Denmark ran a program to provide Greenlandic women with IUDs to prevent them from getting pregnant. In some cases, without telling them.

There is already a strong independence movement in Greenland. In the long term, a majority of Greenlanders want to sever ties with Denmark. But since Denmark currently accounts for half of the island's state budget, there are practically no conditions for a divorce, even if the forced marriage is cracking at the seams.

 

Photo: Mark Schiefelbein / AP

Trump's hope is probably that by offering Greenland economic benefits, he will be able to entice them to abandon Denmark.

At present, those chances must be assessed as small. Opinion polls conducted in connection with Trump's stated threats show that a clear majority rejects the idea of ​​replacing Danish sovereignty with American.

Back in May, the American newspaper Wall Street Journal revealed that the US intelligence service had been ordered to increase its espionage in Greenland.

The Danish security police, PET, indirectly confirms Danmarks Radio's information. In a comment, PET says that Greenland "is particularly exposed to various types of influence operations in the current situation".

It is unclear whether the businessmen are working on a direct assignment from President Trump. However, two of them have previously been Trump associates and the third has appeared with Trump several times.

Danmarks Radio has chosen not to name the men out of respect for the anonymous sources.

It seems less likely that the businessmen would act on their own in any way without Trump's knowledge.

 

Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr, on a visit to Nuuk, Greenland, in January. Photo: Emil Stach / AP