Putin and Xi Jinping pose with other leaders at the SCO summit in China. Photo: Alexander Kazakov/AP
The war in Ukraine is one of the most important issues during the SCO meeting currently underway in China.
This is what Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius thinks:
- Russia cannot afford to continue fighting. Putin and Xi Jinping will discuss how Russia can end the war so that it appears that the country has won.
Quick versionToday, Sunday, and tomorrow, Monday, a meeting is taking place in Tianjin, China, between about 20 countries - the most important are China, Indiia and Russia - within the framework of the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
On Wednesday, a major military parade will be held in Beijing in front of, among others, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is only present in Tianjin, but it is still the first time since 2018 that he has visited China. The countries' relationship has been frozen after their soldiers were involved in deadly clashes on the Himalayan border in 2020.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the SCO meeting. Photo: AP
Donald Trump's actions have now pushed Modi into Xi's arms. In June, Trump claimed in a phone call with Modi that he had brokered peace between India and Pakistan. Modi angrily replied that the ceasefire was not due to Trump's involvement at all, according to The New York Times. A few weeks later, Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on India, as punishment for the country buying Russian oil.
Now India is seeking contact with China for economic reasons, according to Malcolm Dixelius:
- Modi and Xi are united in their distrust of Trump, he says.
Dixelius believes that the countries present are in China to discuss how they can break the power of the United States and create a new “multipolar world”. Another important issue is the Ukraine war, which Russia and China will discuss.
– This is another one of the meetings that will determine the future of Ukraine, says Malcolm Dixelius and continues:
– The Chinese have a lot of leverage over Russia, which gives them strong influence over how the war will end.
Malcolm Dixelius. Photo: Magnus Wennman
China warns Putin
He believes that Russia is facing a banking crisis in 2026, after Putin forced the Russian banking system to provide soft credits to the state for rearmament. Therefore, Russian and Chinese experts have been negotiating for some time about how the war will end and what peace conditions China requires in order to continue supporting Russia economically. Dixelius is convinced of this:
– China’s message to Russia is: “No concessions to the USA”. Trump wants to achieve economic cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. But I think the Chinese are warning Putin not to go too far there.
Dixelius notes that the relationship is not equal:
– Russia is one tenth of China, both in population and economy. It's like nothing. Russia is on the way to becoming one
to China.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at the SCO summit in China. Photo: Alexander Kazakov/AP
Has the relationship between Xi and Putin not changed after Trump welcomed Putin as a world leader in Alaska?
– For the Chinese, I don't think it's a big deal. The Chinese have a very long-term view of things. They're really tough on Trump because they know he's not "forever." They think that “we are patient with him, if he means three more difficult years for us, we will take it”, says Dixelius.
In the same way, they are long-term in their relationship with Russia. And it is China that is holding the baton, says Dixelius.
Putin has long tried to get the Chinese to buy a new gas pipeline, Power of Siberia 2, but they are not interested in that. Then it is much more important to come to an agreement with the Russians so that China gets help from Russian icebreakers through the Northeast Passage, when the climate gets warmer:
– It is economically much more important than we realize. It takes 14 days faster to transport a container from China to Europe via the northern route, states Malcolm Dixelius.
FACTS
Countries present at the SCO meeting in Tianjin 31 August-1 September
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Vladimir Putin in Alaska with Donald Trump. Photo: Sergei Bobylev/AP
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