The curve is puzzling - but it may soon be over

The mystery - why has the melting in the Arctic slowed down?

Jonathan Jeppsson

Dig manager and climate columnist

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 20.54 | Published 20.38

The melting in the Arctic has slowed down significantly in the last 20 years - which surprises scientists.

But the pause may soon be over.

The risk is then, a new study shows, that the melting will accelerate instead.

 

The melting of the ice in the Arctic has stopped. Photo: Source: Geophysical Research Letters: volume 52, issue 15

There is nothing so-called climate skeptics love as much as the discussion about the Arctic - and especially the chapter on Al Gore.

When the former US vice president and climate activist accepted the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, he referred to a report that said that the summer ice in the Arctic could be gone within seven years.

That illustrated the dangers of predicting the future.

Not to mention the polar bears: “When Al Gore was born, there were 7,000 polar bears, now there are only 25,000 left,” goes a popular one-liner on social media.

No horror stories

And even if what Al Gore actually said in 2007, when the curves were pointing straight down, has recently been spread in a distorted form, it can still be stated that the horror stories mentioned have not been realized. There is reason to ask: Why has the melting of Arctic sea ice slowed down in the past 20 years?

A new study confirms that this is the case.

Since 2005, there has been no clear statistically significant decrease in sea ice extent, which has surprised scientists. Carbon dioxide emissions have continued to increase over all these years and the oceans have stored more and more heat.

Summer ice in the Arctic has decreased significantly, but melting has slowed down. Photo: Source: Geophysical Research Letters: volume 52, issue 15

Natural causes

In times when heat records were broken in both 2023 and 2024, where the oceans have been hit by recurring heat waves, where human influence has been found to worsen the floods in Valencia, the fires in Los Angeles and the heat in Southern Europe, in Los Angeles and the heat in Southern Europe, this is a somewhat unexpected development – ​​sea ice in the Arctic is holding up. But what is it really about?

The researchers behind the study assess that it has to do with natural variations in ocean currents, currents that limit melting. It may not be so odd after all – these periods of slowing down in melting have been seen in the models in about 20 percent of the runs, even in scenarios with high emissions. 

”Zombie virus” could cause a new pandemi when the ice meits

Complex trends

The climate, and climate change, is complex and trends must be seen in the long term. The development is not linear – for a period of a decade, even warming seemed to have stopped.

So before the jubilation that the climate is saved – or that Al Gore was wrong – breaks out, there are a few things to take into account:

• The result does not mean that sea ice in the Arctic is recovering. The extent of the sea ice in September has halved since 1979.
• The average thickness in October has decreased by 0,6 centimeters per year since 2010.
• All simulations show that sea ice loss is accelerating again after the slowdown – within five to ten years, melting is expected to resume at about twice the rate of the long-term trend. “This pause increases (...) the risk of a more rapid decline in sea ice extent in the coming years,” the researchers write.

In other words, the respite – although welcome – may prove to be only temporary. In the longer term, many scientists still see the Arctic as being ice-free in summer during this century.