Expert: Still unclear how the war will end

TT

Published 08.45

            

           The US and Israel's bombing of Iran and Iranian attacks on targets in other countries in the Middle             East – and ships in the Persian Gulf – have been ongoing since February 28. Archive Photo: Victor             R Caivano AP/TT

US President Donald Trump failed to allay concerns about the Iran war with his televised speech on Thursday night – quite the opposite.

– He says the war will end within a few weeks. But how is a bit unclear, says Dag Blanck, professor of North American studies at Uppsala University.

The speech was unusually short for Trump. And it contained little news. It was followed by rising oil prices and falling stock markets.

– It was a speech that was just trying to summarize some of what he had said before, I think, says Blanck.

No reassuring messages

No suggestions were presented on how Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz should be handled.

– The US doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz, so then you can arrange it, make sure it opens then, Trump told the allies, says Blanck.

There was also no clarification given about Trump's previous threat to leave the defense alliance NATO. Blanck notes that Trump completely avoided mentioning NATO in the speech, despite previous speculation to the contrary.

Regarding the US's motives for the war, the focus was on Trump wanting to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons and knocking out the country's military capacity, according to Blanck.

Trump himself continued in the speech to describe the war as successful. And he flagged massive bombing for 2-3 more weeks.

The Iran war has – since the US and Israel began bombing on February 28 – become a hot issue among American voters.

– It is an unpopular war domestically. Trump has support among his loyal supporters for this war. They stand by him. But if you look at public opinion, there is a majority against the war. Not least because it has led to increases in the price of gasoline, says Blanck.

– When gasoline costs over $4 per gallon (about 11 kronor per liter) then it is not good, so to speak, he adds.

Has promised a short war

The question of when the war is over is crucial for how it affects voters ahead of this fall's congressional elections in the US, according to Blanck.

– He has promised that there will be a quick and short war here. The longer it goes on, the more negative it will be for him.

If the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the fall elections – as a result of dissatisfaction with, among other things, the Iran war – it would radically change the playing field in American politics, according to Blanck.

– Then we will see a lot of activity and a lot happening. It will be big problems for Trump, he says.