Sweden at a standstill - only one country can help us now

Wolfgang Hansson 

No one else can break the deadlock over NATO 

Published: Today 14.40  

Updated: Today 16.46  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to Turkey on Sunday. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP  

COLUMNISTS  

Right now, it looks bleak for the possibilities of getting Turkey to approve Sweden as a NATO member. 

But that doesn't mean the race is over.  

The USA is still Sweden's greatest hope. This weekend, another piece of the puzzle will be put in place. 

The last week has been a bit strange. Once again, it has been dribbled back and forth about whether Finland is on its way into NATO before Sweden.  

And suddenly many of the key players have felt compelled to point out what has been obvious all along. That only Turkey can decide if and when they intend to give the green light to both Finland and Sweden.  

I see it as a sign that the diplomatic efforts are in high gear far beyond Stockholm and Helsinki.  

This week, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg was in Ankara to emphasize once again that it is time for Turkey to approve the two Nordic countries. 

"Erdogan wants guarantees that Turkey can really buy the plan before the Turkish parliament approves Sweden and Finland." Photo: Firdia Lisnawati / AP  

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Turkey. He will show the United States' readiness to assist Turkey after the severe earthquakes. 

But he will mainly address the NATO process.  

Stoltenberg's effort and the combined pressure from all NATO countries should not be underestimated. The other day, it was German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock who visited Stockholm to support the government's line that Sweden fulfilled the agreement it has with Turkey. 

But only the US has the strength to seriously twist President Erdogan's arm.  

No transparency  

We can all follow the open diplomatic game. The handshakes and the grim faces in front of the television cameras. The official statements at countless press conferences.  

But where the issue is really decided, we have no insight. In the closed rooms where the key people meet face to face to make up. There, the meetings between Turkey and the US are particularly important.  

Blinken's visit to Ankara is his first since Biden took office two years ago. It is remarkable that he had not greeted such an important ally before. That's because President Biden deliberately wanted to keep the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan at arm's length.  

"This week, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg was in Ankara to emphasize once again that it is time for Turkey to approve the two Nordic countries." Photo: Olivier Matthys / AP  

The fact that the US is now keen to improve relations with Turkey again is largely due to the war in Ukraine and the expansion of NATO.  

The United States is prepared to bury the hatchet because Turkey bought a Russian air defense system a number of years ago against the express objections of the United States. Biden is prepared to sell the US fighter jet F-16 to Turkey. But regardless of what is said outwardly, it will not happen without conditions.  

Erdogan is not alone in being able to act as a bazaar trader.  

One of the conditions is that Turkey approves both Finland and Sweden as NATO members. Although it doesn't necessarily have to happen exactly at the same time. 

PKK sympathizers  

For Turkey, Sweden and Finland are just pawns they are trying to use in a bigger game. A game where Erdogan can collect some plus points with Putin while at the same time he can present himself as a powerful and independent statesman in front of his own population.  

But for Turkey's security interests, new and upgraded fighter jets are infinitely more important than Sweden stopping flag-waving PKK sympathizers on the streets of Stockholm. 

However, Erdogan wants guarantees that Turkey can really buy the plan before the Turkish parliament approves Sweden and Finland. The US Congress is not entirely positive and they have to approve the deal.  

A shake-up is going on and what is communicated outwardly is not necessarily the same as what is said in the closed rooms. Apart from the warplanes, there are other points of contention between the US and Turkey.  

The US and the rest of NATO want to force Erdogan to shelve his plans for another invasion of northern Syria in order to create a wider buffer zone against the same Kurdish armed group that helped NATO fight the Islamic State. 

Hard pinches 

A concession Erdogan would rather avoid making in order to get his F-16 planes. Approving Sweden and Finland is a much easier pill to swallow.  

Blinken's visit to Turkey is an important piece of the puzzle in the US's attempt to shake what has so far appeared to be an adamant Turkish no. But it is likely not until after the election in Turkey, if it now goes off as planned on May 14, that the US will take the really hard pinches if Erdogan is still being trilled.  

The goal is for both Finland and Sweden to be members when NATO gathers for a summit in Lithuania in July. Although it is not a disaster if it drags on for a few months.  

At least outwardly, everyone is convinced that Finland and Sweden will become members. But it is the United States that ultimately has to make sure that all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.