That would happen if China starts giving weapons to Putin

Wolfgang Hansson  

Chinese weapons would mean dangerous escalation  

Published: Less than 2 hours ago  

Updated: Less than 40 min ago  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

COLUMNIST  

If China, as the US claims, is about to sell weapons to Russia, it is a dangerous escalation of the war.  

We already have two of the world's most powerful states indirectly fighting each other. 

If the future superpower China gets involved in the war, it will be even more like the prelude to a third world war.  

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken claims that in the coming days the United States will present evidence that China plans to sell arms and ammunition to Russia.

China denies and accuses the US of spreading false information.  

So far, China has not condemned the Russian invasion, but at the same time it has been cautious about giving concrete support to Russia. Instead, it has tried to present itself as a neutral third party urging all sides to sit down at the negotiating table to bring a quick end to the war.  

If China were to supply Russia with weapons, it is serious in several ways.  

It would probably change the calculus of the outcome of the war. Russia has so far lost huge amounts of tanks and other military equipment and has had difficulty replacing it at the same rate. If China supplies Russia with weapons, the aggressor's ability in the war is strengthened.  

It would also mean that the world's third largest military power and also a nuclear weapon nation stands behind Russia in the war. Aside from the arms help, it would also strengthen Vladimir Putin both psychologically and morally. He could very concretely point out that Russia is getting help from its best friend in the international arena and not just from pariah regimes like North Korea and Iran.  

A direct Chinese involvement also means a dangerous escalation of the war. It would become even more clear that what is taking place in Ukraine is in practice a proxy war not only between the US and Russia but also with China, which is now the US's main challenger on the world stage. 

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Photo: Sergei Bobylev / AP

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A war between West and East that brings to mind the days of the Cold War. A war between the democratic, liberal world and the one dominated by dictators and authoritarian leaders.  

For the US and NATO, it would be very bad news that would further raise the cost of helping Ukraine stand up to Russia.  

China has greatly increased its trade with Russia since the outbreak of war a year ago. They buy more Russian oil and export, among other things, Chinese cars. But so far, with a few exceptions, they have refrained from exporting goods that have a military use. 

The times it has done so, the United States has reacted by imposing sanctions on the Chinese companies involved. This applies, among other things, to a company that provided the Wagner group with Chinese satellite images of Ukraine.  

The main reason why China was low is that, despite the lousy political relations, it has a very extensive trade with both the USA and the EU. China's economy would suffer considerable damage if the West imposed sanctions as punishment for Chinese arms deliveries.  

At the same time, China has a very close relationship with Russia. A few weeks before the invasion, Vladimir Putin visited China's leader Xi Jinping in connection with the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The two then entered into a strategic partnership "without any borders". 

New war around the corner  

Although China does not like the war, it does not want Russia to lose. That would be seen as a bad omen for a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the democratic island nation that China considers an inseparable part of the Chinese mainland.  

China has threatened to take Taiwan by force if the rulers there do not agree to a peaceful integration with China. At the same time, Joe Biden has promised that the United States will defend the island in the event of a Chinese attack. 

A new war threatens around the corner.  

When Blinken met the top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi this weekend at the security conference in Munich, he threatened "far-reaching consequences" if China supplies Russia with weapons. 

Exactly what this means is unclear, but one can assume that it is about economic sanctions against China.  

In that case, it could lead to new problems in the international supply chains because the West's imports from China are still so large. It includes, among other things, the rare earth metals that are so important for the green transition.  

Wang Yi is expected to visit Moscow today to present what China calls a "peace plan" for Ukraine. The US fears that China's real aim is to try to drive a wedge between the US and Europe over support for Ukraine