Warning bell for anyone who wants to stop Russia

German politics
German choice of path bodes ill for Ukraine

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 19.51 | Published 19.38

For the first time since World War II, a far-right party in Germany has won a state election.

The result raises many uncomfortable questions about where Germany is headed.

It also bodes ill for Ukraine's ability to make peace with Russia.

Quick version

•  For the first time since World War II, a far-right party, the AfD, has won a state election in Germany, raising concerns about the country's political future.
• The AfD, classified as far-right by the German security service, won 33 percent in Thuringia and is raising questions about Germany's handling of immigrants and its relationship to the legacy of Nazism.
• The AfD's success, along with the new left-wing populist party BSW, poses a challenge to Germany and signals potential reduced support for Ukraine, which could have implications for Europe's geopolitics.

Although it was expected, Alternative for Germany's, AFD's election victory in Thuringia raises bad forebodings about Germany's political future.

For a long time, the country's Nazi past was considered a guarantee that similar movements would never again gain real influence.

But in a little over ten years, AFD has gone from being an EU-critical party with dreams of reintroducing the German currency, the German mark, to a party that is classified by the German security service as far-right. This particularly applies to the branch in Thuringia, where AFD received 33 percent in yesterday's state election.

The local party leader Björn Höcke, who is also something of AFD's ideologue, has been convicted of using banned Nazi slogans at election meetings.

Photo: Daniel Vogl / AP

It was in Thuringia that the Nazi Party won its first electoral victory in a state in the 1930s.

Earlier this year, it was revealed that representatives of the AFD participated in a secret meeting about how millions of asylum seekers, including those with German citizenship, could be deported under new legislation.

AFD is in many ways the Sweden Democrats' counterpart in Germany, but in some ways even more extreme.

I have visited East Germany many times after the fall of the Berlin Wall, most recently before the EU elections this summer and am not the least bit surprised by the election results.

Photo: Stefan Jerrevång

Compact dissatisfaction

You don't have to talk to many people in East German small towns to experience their feeling of not being listened to when it comes to immigration, for example. Or the disappointment of still being regarded as second-class citizens, some 30 years after reunification. It doesn't help that Germany spent billions on equipping the former communist parts of the country. Dissatisfaction with the current three-party government in Berlin is compact.

The Social Democrats narrowly passed the barrier for the state parliament in Thuringia. The Green Party left.

Anyone who wants to can take comfort in the fact that AFD's victory in Thuringia and second place in Saxony (with just over 30 percent) were only about state elections. And that the party will probably not be allowed to participate in governing in any of the states. Other parties have promised not to cooperate with AFD under any circumstances. But in Thuringia they look set to get a third of the vote and can then block any decision that requires a qualified majority.

Photo: Vadim Ghirda / TT News Agency

Germany is one of the few countries in Europe where the established parties still maintain a firewall against extremist parties. But many believe that it is only a matter of time before someone breaks the promise. The states must be governed and it becomes almost impossible if a party that received more than 30 percent of the vote is excluded.

A Swedish development in Germany where, for example, the CDU, at least at the local level, starts a collaboration with the AFD cannot be ruled out. CDU leader Friedrich Mertz has moved the party to the right.

Some say that one should not make too big a deal of AFD's successes because they are taking place in the former East Germany. The problem is that AFD also did well in state elections in western Germany, even if they did not reach 30 percent.

Several warning signs

The party is growing all over Germany and it is asking uncomfortable questions about what is going on in the depths of the German people.

AFD's success is not the only warning sign. A new left-wing populist party around leader Sarah Wagenknecht won 16 percent of the vote in Thuringia and 12 percent in Saxony. BSW was formed as recently as last spring, but already in the EU elections in June, it reaped significant successes nationally.

The party is a breakaway from the remnants of the East German communist party Die Linke. But on the immigration issue, BSW is very close to AFD. Both basically want an end to asylum immigration.

But both parties also want to put an end to sending German money and weapons to Ukraina. Instead, they want to force Ukraine to start peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin in a situation when Russia occupies large parts of eastern Ukraine. They also want to resume importing cheap Russian gas to reduce the German people's skyrocketing energy costs due to the war.

Rescue workers gather outside buildings damaged in a Russian attack. Photo: Mykola Tys / TT News Agency

Since it is the German government that manages foreign policy, the results of the state elections have no immediate impact on support for Ukraine.

But the signal from a not insignificant part of the population is hard to ignore.

Next year there are elections for the German parliament, the Bundestag. If the social democrats, the environmental party and the liberal democrats are not to lose a lot, they must absorb the criticism of Ukraine.

Chancellor Scholz has already announced a certain reduction in support.

If Germany starts to reduce its contribution, it won't take long for other countries to do so. Criticism of aid to Ukraine is widespread, especially in southern Europe.

The election results in Germany are a serious warning bell for Ukraine and anyone who wants to stop Putin's dreams of a new Great Russian empire.