Threatening with nuclear weapons – now the world is holding its breath
Two nuclear powers threatening each other with war is not something the world needs
Threatening with nuclear weapons – now the world is holding its breath
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Published 20.09
Two nuclear countries threatening each other with war does not feel like something the world needs right now.
Yet that is exactly what India and Pakistan are doing after last week's terrorist attack in Kashmir when 26 Hindu men were murdered.
Quick version
The conflict between these nuclear-armed countries is of particular concern to the outside world, with the UN and the US stressing the importance of preventing the situation from escalating into full-scale war.
Pakistan claims that it has indications of an Indian attack within 36 hours.
The two countries' armies have sporadically fired at each other in recent days along the 740-kilometer-long border in Kashmir, which has been disputed since 1947.
India has test-fired long-range missiles as a prelude to possible real attacks.
Pakistan's railway minister warned India over the weekend that the country's nuclear arsenal of at least 130 warheads is "not just models" and that all of them are aimed solely at India.
India has terminated a water treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats and revoked visas for Pakistanis.
Pakistan has responded by expelling Indian diplomats, revoking visas and closing its airspace to Indian flights.
The rapid escalation follows last week's terrorist attack when what India suspects is an Islamist group with links to Pakistan cold-bloodedly murdered 26 Indian tourists in the scenic Himalayan province of Kashmir.
They selected only Hindu men. To identify their religion, the men were forced to recite verses from the Koran. Those who could not were murdered.
It is difficult to see the terrorist attack as anything other than an attempt to provoke a fight between arch-enemies India and Pakistan.
The two countries have been in dispute over Kashmir since their independence from the British. Both believe that the province as a whole belongs to them. It has been divided since 1949. There is no peace treaty. Over the years, the countries have fought several wars to subjugate the entire area. The majority of the inhabitants are Muslims. Even in the Indian part.
The conflict might not have played such a big role in the world if it were not for the fact that both countries possess nuclear weapons. Weapons that they acquired in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to protect themselves against their hostile neighbor.
International experts have long argued that the greatest risk of nuclear weapons being used is in a war between India and Pakistan.
The two countries' nuclear weapons strategies differ. Pakistan focuses on using smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to deter an attack with conventional weapons.
India's strategy is to first attack with conventional weapons before escalating with nuclear weapons if it deems it necessary.
This difference is considered to increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used in the event of war.
That the outside world is seriously concerned that the conflict will derail this time is shown by the fact that both UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in separate talks with both countries, have stressed the importance of the conflict not escalating into a major armed confrontation.
India has not yet presented any evidence as to who carried out the attack and that it was carried out with Pakistani involvement. Pakistan claims that India is using the terrorist act as a pretext for a military attack.
The relatively unknown Islamist group Resistance Front initially claimed responsibility for the attack but later withdrew its claim, citing hacking.
India considers the group to be a local branch of Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT, one of the major Islamist terror groups based in Pakistan. The group was behind the 2008 Mumbai terror attack that killed 175 people, most of them in a luxury hotel where many foreigners were staying.
India believes the group is a local branch of Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT, one of the major Islamist terror groups based in Pakistan. The group was behind the terrorist attack in Mumbai in 2008 when 175 people were killed. The majority at a luxury hotel where many foreigners were staying.
Many experts claim that there are strong ties between LeT and the Pakistani intelligence service ISI.
At the same time, it is difficult to see what Pakistan would gain by provoking a war with India at this time. The country is in political chaos since the imprisonment of former prime minister and cricket star Imran Khan. The country's economy is in a shambles.
Many expect that India Prime Minister Narendra Modi will feel compelled to respond to the terrorist attack, but some are wary of military action against Pakistan. Not least after the harsh words he uttered after the terrorist attack, in which he promised to hunt down the perpetrators “to the ends of the earth” and that they “will be punished beyond what they can imagine”.
If it is a limited military action, as after militant Islamist attacks in 2016 and 2019, there is a possibility of avoiding the whole thing developing into a full-scale war.
In the meantime, the world must hold its breath.
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