British intelligence: System collapse – within five years
Published 19.13
Report: Biodiversity on Earth is disappearing
Trump and Putin.
But another security threat is also acute, warns British intelligence: Food shortages.
Because ecosystems are at risk of collapsing – within just five years.
– It is extremely important that decision-makers in Sweden also take this to heart, says Lisen Schultz at the Stockholm Resilience Center.
The alarm comes in a 14-page British report. It was actually supposed to be published last fall, but was stopped by the government at 10 Downing Street. The reason is said to be fear that it would be too negative.
The report formally comes from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). But according to The Guardian, the Joint Intelligence Committee – which oversees the British intelligence services MI5 and MI6 – was behind the work.
“Could collapse by 2030”
And the threat to national security in the UK that is described is not about terror or military attacks – but about our way of over-consuming nature. The warnings about this threat are now being sharply intensified. It is real – already happening to some extent – and could become widespread, catastrophic within five years.
“There is a realistic possibility that some ecosystems will begin to collapse by 2030 or earlier, as a result of biodiversity loss caused by land use change, pollution, climate change and other driving forces.”
FACTS
UN- World Economic Forum – and NATO alarm for a long time
The UN’s climate and biodiversity panels have long sounded the alarm that the conditions for human civilization are being fundamentally shaken.
“Right now, we are on the path to systematically eradicating all non-human life,” said Anne Larigauderie, head of the UN Panel on Biological Diversity (IPBES), in 2020.
NATO’s long-term strategy, adopted in 2022, highlights climate change as “the defining challenge of our time, with profound implications for the security of allies,” as Aftonbladet previously described.
According to a risk report from the World Economic Forum 2026, the world’s short-term concerns are primarily economic issues and geopolitical conflicts. But the most serious long-term threats remain: environmental risks. There, the trend is alarmingly negative.
Sources: AFP, IPBES, World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026, Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO) 5 from the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 2020, NATO, Aftonbladet,
If biodiversity in major key systems on Earth collapses, it will lead to food shortages, huge price increases, mass migration and global uprisings, the report underlines.
Food supplies are particularly sensitive, as the UK would not be able to compete with other countries for scarce resources, the intelligence committee assesses.
The climate crisis is worsening
The effects of the climate crisis are already being felt today with crop failures, increasingly intense natural disasters – with forest fires, torrential rains, floods, droughts and erosion – and more outbreaks of infectious diseases.
This will worsen and lead to “geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflicts, migration and increased competition between states for resources”, according to the report.
– This assessment is a welcome and important recognition of the very critical diversity of threats that the UK faces. It treats ecosystem collapse with the seriousness it deserves, as a threat to our national security, says Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, a former senior military commander, to The Guardian.
Refers to others
What these threatening ecosystem collapses would mean for Sweden and national security here has not been analyzed, according to Aftonbladet's review. Nor does any authority seem to feel responsible.
The Swedish Civil Defence Agency refers to the Swedish Food Agency. The Swedish Food Agency refers to the Swedish Board of Agriculture, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and – back to the Swedish Civil Defence Agency. The Swedish Board of Agriculture refers to SMHI and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.The Swedish Armed Forces refers to the Swedish Defence Research Institute, FOI, which states in an email that "this is an area that FOI is not involved in".
– We are working on analyzing how biodiversity is doing, how it affects society and how it is connected to climate change, says Fredrik Hannerz, head of department at the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.
“We agree”
– We have not done such a specific analysis of the consequences for Sweden's security, but we agree with the driving forces behind the threat of system collapse that are raised here. Climate change, overexploitation of ecosystems and how we use our land.He takes the Baltic Sea as an example – where several factors have interacted: eutrophication, toxins, climate change but above all overfishing.
– The effect is clear.
What the ecological collapse would lead to
“Serious degradation or collapse” of the Earth’s critical ecosystems would, according to the report, “with high probability lead to”:* water insecurity
* greatly reduced harvests
* global reduction of arable land
* collapse of fisheries
* changed global weather patterns
* release of bound carbon that exacerbates climate change
* new zoonotic (animal-borne) diseases
* loss of pharmaceutical resources.
Source: “Nature security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security”, report from the British government, 20 January 2026.
“Critical ecosystems that support major food-producing regions and influence the global climate and water and weather cycles are the most important for the UK’s national security”, states the British report.
The report authors point out key areas that are particularly threatened for the UK: the boreal forests – that is, the coniferous forest belt that also covers Sweden, the Amazon and Congo Basin rainforests, the Himalayas, and the coral reefs and mangrove forests of Southeast Asia.
“Already before 2030”
According to the report, some of them, including coral reefs and boreal forests, could begin to collapse even before 2030, while others could take until 2050. Some researchers have warned that the Amazon is already showing signs of changing faster than expected.
“Need to collaborate”
Lisen Schultz is a researcher in sustainable development and deputy director of the Stockholm Resilience Center at Stockholm University. She is positive that what researchers have been sounding the alarm about for a long time is now being clearly highlighted as a national security issue.– Then perhaps it can be seen as more relevant to our decision-makers. This report highlights our dependence not only on a stable climate but also on viable ecosystems. That we not only need to take care of our own national nature but also – for our own sake – need to cooperate globally to save ecosystems in the world. And that this has implications for our security, she says.
Analysis for Sweden called for
The risks raised are general and apply as much to Sweden as to the UK.
– But it would be very good to have a specific analysis for Sweden – for our national security, food security and to see that we also need to work to restore nature. A holistic approach would be needed, and it is extremely important that decision-makers start acting on these insights. The outcome depends on whether decision-makers take this on board or not.
Is there anything to suggest that decision-makers in Sweden are taking this knowledge on board?
– Good question. It is quite clear that we need to remind our decision-makers of the role of nature in our continued security. The crisis in the ecosystems is not taking a break because we have other crises to deal with.
Aftonbladet is looking for Minister of Defense Pål Jonsson (M), Minister of Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), Minister of Climate and Environment Romina Pourmokhtari (L) and Minister of Rural Affairs Peter Kullgren (KD).
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