ANALYSIS—Vote
counting is in chaos with the official results announcement postponed
to Monday and a huge number of reports of irregularities and
inconsistencies. But one thing is already clear — military dictator
Prayut Chan-ocha is going to remain prime minister of Thailand.
According to the latest figures from the Election Commission, with 93 percent of votes counted, the junta's Palang Pracharat Party is in the lead with 7.59 million votes, with Thaksin Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party second with 7.38 million. The Future Forward Party is in third place with 5.28 million.
The polls were neither free nor fair. The constitution was explicitly designed to ensure the junta was still in charge regardless of how people voted. Prayut and his allies cheated outrageously throughout the campaign, aided by the full might of the Thai military. Many questions remain unanswered about the extent of electoral fraud. The delay in announcing results is extremely suspicious, as is the extraordinary tally of at least 1.7 million void votes. All of this undermines the legitimacy of the Palang Pracharat Party's apparent election victory.
But while it is a tainted triumph, it was still an extraordinary and unexpected result for Prayut Chan-ocha and his allies.
For Thaksin, the results are a disaster. Pheu Thai polled much worse than expected. The party had been expecting to win more than 200 seats, but has fallen far short of that goal. This election marks the end of Thaksin's dominance of Thai electoral politics. His parties had easily won every election held in Thailand in the 21st century. Until this one. Despite all the obstacles he faced, this is a bitterly disappointing result for him.
The Democrat Party paid the price for consistently undermining democracy and enabling military dictatorship. Their hypocrisy was punished at the polls. The party is languishing in fifth place with just 12 percent of the vote. They failed to win a single seat in Bangkok. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva resigned when the scale of the debacle became clear.
The remarkable performance of the Future Forward Party led by auto parts billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit heralds a transformation in Thai politics. With the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties faltering, the era of Red versus Yellow in Thailand is coming to an end, but the political conflict is far from over, and the stakes are now clearer — it is a struggle of progressive democracy against royalist authoritarianism. Future Forward will be a superb opposition party, probably the best Thailand has ever had.
Why did Prayut do so well? One reason is, of course, his blatant cheating. But he also benefited from widespread support among older Thais who believed he would maintain stability. Palang Pracharat specifically focused on this in the final days of the campaign, adding a new slogan to their campaign posters: "If you want peace, choose Uncle Tu."
Prayut and his party will have no problem forming a large coalition to dominate parliament. The fourth place Bhumjai Thai Party, the remnants of the Democrat Party, and almost all smaller parties will now be eager to join the coalition.
But it will be a huge challenge for Prayut and his allies to try to maintain royalist autocracy in a democratic environment. How will they cope with debates in parliament, or protests on the streets? What will they do when their government grows increasingly unpopular? There is a strong possibility that in coming years we will see Prayut's government implode.
The monarchy has been significantly weakened by the events of the past few months. The clear political divisions in the palace — with former princess Ubolratana Mahidol openly aligning herself with Thaksin Shinawatra in defiance of her brother who backed the junta — have done severe damage to the image of the royals. Vajiralongkorn's intervention on the eve of the election telling Thais to vote for "good people" — a signal to vote for royalist and military-allied parties — further punctured the myth that the monarchy is above politics. The response on social media, where the top trending hashtag quickly became #โตเเล้วเลือกเองได้ — "I'm old enough to decide by myself" — would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The royal cult that has blighted Thai politics for decades is disintegrating.
The emergence of the Future Forward Party as a significant electoral force is the most refreshing development in Thai politics for many years. The country is still far away from real democracy. But it is moving closer.
According to the latest figures from the Election Commission, with 93 percent of votes counted, the junta's Palang Pracharat Party is in the lead with 7.59 million votes, with Thaksin Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party second with 7.38 million. The Future Forward Party is in third place with 5.28 million.
The polls were neither free nor fair. The constitution was explicitly designed to ensure the junta was still in charge regardless of how people voted. Prayut and his allies cheated outrageously throughout the campaign, aided by the full might of the Thai military. Many questions remain unanswered about the extent of electoral fraud. The delay in announcing results is extremely suspicious, as is the extraordinary tally of at least 1.7 million void votes. All of this undermines the legitimacy of the Palang Pracharat Party's apparent election victory.
But while it is a tainted triumph, it was still an extraordinary and unexpected result for Prayut Chan-ocha and his allies.
For Thaksin, the results are a disaster. Pheu Thai polled much worse than expected. The party had been expecting to win more than 200 seats, but has fallen far short of that goal. This election marks the end of Thaksin's dominance of Thai electoral politics. His parties had easily won every election held in Thailand in the 21st century. Until this one. Despite all the obstacles he faced, this is a bitterly disappointing result for him.
The Democrat Party paid the price for consistently undermining democracy and enabling military dictatorship. Their hypocrisy was punished at the polls. The party is languishing in fifth place with just 12 percent of the vote. They failed to win a single seat in Bangkok. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva resigned when the scale of the debacle became clear.
The remarkable performance of the Future Forward Party led by auto parts billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit heralds a transformation in Thai politics. With the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties faltering, the era of Red versus Yellow in Thailand is coming to an end, but the political conflict is far from over, and the stakes are now clearer — it is a struggle of progressive democracy against royalist authoritarianism. Future Forward will be a superb opposition party, probably the best Thailand has ever had.
Why did Prayut do so well? One reason is, of course, his blatant cheating. But he also benefited from widespread support among older Thais who believed he would maintain stability. Palang Pracharat specifically focused on this in the final days of the campaign, adding a new slogan to their campaign posters: "If you want peace, choose Uncle Tu."
Prayut and his party will have no problem forming a large coalition to dominate parliament. The fourth place Bhumjai Thai Party, the remnants of the Democrat Party, and almost all smaller parties will now be eager to join the coalition.
But it will be a huge challenge for Prayut and his allies to try to maintain royalist autocracy in a democratic environment. How will they cope with debates in parliament, or protests on the streets? What will they do when their government grows increasingly unpopular? There is a strong possibility that in coming years we will see Prayut's government implode.
The monarchy has been significantly weakened by the events of the past few months. The clear political divisions in the palace — with former princess Ubolratana Mahidol openly aligning herself with Thaksin Shinawatra in defiance of her brother who backed the junta — have done severe damage to the image of the royals. Vajiralongkorn's intervention on the eve of the election telling Thais to vote for "good people" — a signal to vote for royalist and military-allied parties — further punctured the myth that the monarchy is above politics. The response on social media, where the top trending hashtag quickly became #โตเเล้วเลือกเองได้ — "I'm old enough to decide by myself" — would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The royal cult that has blighted Thai politics for decades is disintegrating.
The emergence of the Future Forward Party as a significant electoral force is the most refreshing development in Thai politics for many years. The country is still far away from real democracy. But it is moving closer.
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