ANALYSIS—Despite
clear cheating by dictator Prayut Chan-ocha and the junta during the
campaign, a dubious election riddled with problems, and the dissolution
of the Thai Raksa Chart Party even though it didn't break any law,
pro-democracy parties appear to have secured 251 seats in the lower
house of parliament. The final results will be delayed until after the
royal coronation in May, but unless the junta tries more trickery, the
pro-democracy side has 251 seats.
My prediction ahead of the election was that the pro-democracy side would win a majority in the lower house, but Prayut would remain prime minister, with the result being political gridlock. This is still my forecast.
Even though Pheu Thai has the right to try to form a government, its majority in the lower house is wafer thin, and could be cancelled out by a single defection to the pro-military side.
But the bigger issue is that the next prime minister has to be appointed not just by a majority in the lower house, but by a vote that includes 250 senators handpicked by the junta.
It's inconceivable that the senators would allow Pheu Thai candidate Sudarat Keyuraphan to become prime minister. So this is not going to happen.
According to multiple informed sources, Thaksin Shinawatra has offered Bhumjai Thai leader Anutin Charnvirakul the position of prime minister if his party joins the Pheu Thai coalition. This would give the coalition a workable majority in the lower house.
But there are several reasons why this probably won't happen.
Bhumjai Thai is the political vehicle of several wealthy Thais who want to be close to King Vajiralongkorn, above all Buriram godfather Newin Chidchob and his allies, plus Anutin and his Sino-Thai Construction conglomerate. Duty free billionaire Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was also an important member of this clique, before his death last year in a helicopter crash, and his family still support this faction. They were all prominent at Vichai's cremation last week.
Despite the constant claims that the monarchy is not involved in politics, King Vajiralongkorn wants to ensure that his allies form the next government. Anutin will do what the palace tells him to do.
The king is not particularly close to Prayut but he wants the palace and military to have a leading role in Thai politics, and he is furious about his sister Ubolratana's open support for Thaksin.
Anutin could only become prime minister in a coalition with the explicit support of Vajiralongkorn. This looks unlikely.
Even if Bhumjai Thai agrees to join the coalition, it would not be stable because the Future Forward Party has made clear it wants the constitution to be changed to make it more democratic, and wants to end army involvement in politics and drastically cut the military budget.
Anutin and Bhumjai Thai will never agree to this, so it would be very difficult for Bhumjai Thai and Future Forward to be part of the same coalition.
So the most probable outcome is that Bhumjai Thai joins the military side in parliament, and that Prayut stays on as prime minister even though he lacks a majority in the lower house.
The result will be an unstable government that struggles to get anything done. This is actually a good outcome for Thai democracy, because the outcome will be a weak government allied to the monarchy and military that will struggle to survive.
My prediction ahead of the election was that the pro-democracy side would win a majority in the lower house, but Prayut would remain prime minister, with the result being political gridlock. This is still my forecast.
Even though Pheu Thai has the right to try to form a government, its majority in the lower house is wafer thin, and could be cancelled out by a single defection to the pro-military side.
But the bigger issue is that the next prime minister has to be appointed not just by a majority in the lower house, but by a vote that includes 250 senators handpicked by the junta.
It's inconceivable that the senators would allow Pheu Thai candidate Sudarat Keyuraphan to become prime minister. So this is not going to happen.
According to multiple informed sources, Thaksin Shinawatra has offered Bhumjai Thai leader Anutin Charnvirakul the position of prime minister if his party joins the Pheu Thai coalition. This would give the coalition a workable majority in the lower house.
But there are several reasons why this probably won't happen.
Bhumjai Thai is the political vehicle of several wealthy Thais who want to be close to King Vajiralongkorn, above all Buriram godfather Newin Chidchob and his allies, plus Anutin and his Sino-Thai Construction conglomerate. Duty free billionaire Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was also an important member of this clique, before his death last year in a helicopter crash, and his family still support this faction. They were all prominent at Vichai's cremation last week.
Despite the constant claims that the monarchy is not involved in politics, King Vajiralongkorn wants to ensure that his allies form the next government. Anutin will do what the palace tells him to do.
The king is not particularly close to Prayut but he wants the palace and military to have a leading role in Thai politics, and he is furious about his sister Ubolratana's open support for Thaksin.
Anutin could only become prime minister in a coalition with the explicit support of Vajiralongkorn. This looks unlikely.
Even if Bhumjai Thai agrees to join the coalition, it would not be stable because the Future Forward Party has made clear it wants the constitution to be changed to make it more democratic, and wants to end army involvement in politics and drastically cut the military budget.
Anutin and Bhumjai Thai will never agree to this, so it would be very difficult for Bhumjai Thai and Future Forward to be part of the same coalition.
So the most probable outcome is that Bhumjai Thai joins the military side in parliament, and that Prayut stays on as prime minister even though he lacks a majority in the lower house.
The result will be an unstable government that struggles to get anything done. This is actually a good outcome for Thai democracy, because the outcome will be a weak government allied to the monarchy and military that will struggle to survive.
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