Lack of trust increases the risk of war

  

Wolfgang Hansson

Published: Yesterday 21.57 

Updated: Yesterday 22.08  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

President Biden initially had no plans to launch the balloon. Photo: AP  

COLUMNISTS  

A white balloon floating high in the stratosphere may seem innocent and harmless.  

But when two great powers don't trust each other, it's the kind of thing that can easily lead to misunderstandings and worse things than that. 

A major war in Ukraine between Russia and NATO is enough. We don't need one between China and the US too. Espionage is something the public can only rarely observe. But thousands of Americans who turned their eyes skyward could see the white balloon sail across the continent.  

China claims it was a weather balloon that went off course. But the US didn't trust it.  

President Biden initially had no plans to launch the balloon. The government argued that people on the ground could be harmed.  

In the end, it was the fear of being perceived as siding with China that made Biden make the decision. He worried that Republicans would take advantage of the situation to undermine Biden's credibility ahead of next year's presidential election.  

Both parties are fighting to be the toughest against China, America's biggest challenger on the world stage. 

Biden's main challenger in 2024, Donald Trump, took to his social media with the call to "Shoot the balloon". Then it matters less that, according to the Pentagon, there were several flights of Chinese balloons in American airspace during Trump's time in power without them being shot down.

Under Xi Jinping, China has become more aggressive and nationalistic. Photo: Zhang Ling/AP 

Satellites can provide still images  

The wreckage of the white balloon landed in relatively shallow water off the coast of South Carolina and the recovery is already in full swing. It will likely take time for the US to analyze the finding.  

But eventually we will get an answer whether it was a pure weather balloon or not.  

In the high-tech age we live in, where every square meter of the Earth is covered by satellites, it may seem strange to use such an old-fashioned technology as balloons to gather intelligence. But of course it all depends on the type of technology the balloon is equipped with. 

Satellites can provide still images with amazing resolution. A balloon that moves over an area for a long time can pick up radio communications, mobile traffic and other movements that a satellite cannot.  

Since the balloon flew over states such as Montana where US nuclear weapons are buried in underground silos, one of the suspicions is that China is trying to map how the US has changed communications with and between its nuclear weapons sites. The underground bunkers are manned around the clock with operators who, if given the order, can launch nuclear weapons within 15 minutes. 

A softer Xi 

Another theory is that China wanted to test US resolve by deliberately sending the balloon straight over the American continent with the message that China has the same spying capabilities as the US.  

The latter theory, however, does not fit well with the softer appearance that China's leader Xi Jinping has tried to signal in recent months. 

When he and Joe Biden met at the G-20 meeting in Indonesia in November, it was seen as a successful start to a new start for relations between the two great powers. Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken's visit to Beijing would have been another step on that path.  

But because of the balloon, Biden decided to postpone Blinken's visit. There, too, domestic political considerations played a major role. If Blinken had completed his trip, it would have been met with strong protests from the Republicans.  

Just over 20 years ago, an American spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet off the Chinese island of Hainan. It took several days before the US managed to get hold of the Chinese leaders. Afterwards, it was decided to establish a "hotline" to reduce the risk that this type of incident would not risk leading to unwanted escalation.  

Dark cloud that carries with it threats  

The hotline apparently didn't work this time.  

Communication between the leaders in Beijing and Washington is minimal. Which increases the risk of misunderstandings and misinterpretations.  

Under Xi Jinping, China has become more aggressive and nationalistic. At the same time, China feels that the United States is trying to stop the country's development into a competing superpower. The US government has ported the Chinese telecom company Huawei from the 5g rollout in the US. A series of restrictions exist on exporting American high technology to China.  

Over everything hangs a dark cloud that carries with it the threat of a direct confrontation between China and the United States.  

Xi Jinping has openly declared that he regards Taiwan as part of China. Some he intends to take over by force if necessary. 

Joe Biden has repeated three times that the United States will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.  

In such a situation, white balloons no longer appear as innocent and harmless.