Ten questions that will determine the economy in 2026
Andreas Cervenka
Reporter and economic commentator
This is comment text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.skribentens.
Published 13.02
Sometimes more happens in a year than it normally does in a decade. 2025 feels like such a year.
As we now put it to the test and look towards 2026, questions arise both in Sweden and in the world.
One stands out as extra tickling.
1. Will the AI bubble burst?
25,000 billion dollars or 230,000 billion kronor. That is the combined market capitalization of the world's world's nine largest companies, all in one way or another connected to the AI boom. In 2026, the huge investments in data centers must show signs of starting to yield returns, otherwise the valuations of many AI companies will crash. Keep a special eye on ChatGPTS' creator OpenAI, which needs to raise almost absurd amounts of capital while facing fierce competition. Should the AI boom still persist and stocks continue to rise, it may be because the next point is about to occur.
2. Will AI start taking jobs?
Either AI companies crash the stock market or AI companies crash the labor market. This is how the dilemma surrounding the new technology could be summarized. Investments in AI must pay off in one way or another, and the fastest way is to cut staff. Several examples of this were already seen in 2025, and 2026 could be the year when AI takes over more and more tasks, something that is predicted to hit young people at the beginning of their careers in particular. Set for a bad mood. But of course, it could also work out well. If we believe
Elon Musk, who in 2025 increased his wealth to a record 6,800 billion kronor (!) AI will make all people rich and able to live in abundance. Good to know.
3. Is the Swedish consumer waking up?
Good morning, now is the time to start shopping! 2025 was quite a long wait for Swedes to rush to the shops and spend more money. Our economy depends on it, if anyone needed reminding. With reduced interest rates, lower taxes, halved food VAT and a raised mortgage ceiling, everything is set for a real shopping and borrowing party. Forecasters including the government have set expectations high, now it just has to happen in reality too. The fact that extreme stimulus is needed for the Swedish economy to even reach control speed should raise questions about how things really are, but that type of analysis will apparently have to wait until after the election
4. What will happen to Trump's tariffs?
Even Donald Trump's harshest critics do not deny one thing: he is very good at creating drama. The TV series The Apprentice is perhaps his most successful creation and in 2025 the whole world got to be part of the series The Tariffs - a soap opera on the border between farce and thriller. All the tours around the tariffs are too numerous to recapitulate, but the fact that TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out became the most popular abbreviation of the year says something. 2026 could begin with even more chaos. Then the US Supreme Court will announce whether Trump was even right to impose all the tariffs. Oops.
5. What is being done about unemployment?
Sweden will enter 2026 with an unemployment rate of a whopping 9 percent according to Statistics Swedens. Apart from the pandemic, you have to go back to the financial crisis of 2008-2009 to find similarly high figures.
You can twist and turn the statistics in many different ways, but you can't find an angle from which it looks really good. Perhaps most striking is what is called in statistical terms the untapped labor supply, i.e. people who do not have a job or can and want to work more than they do today. This deficit corresponds to a whopping 588,000 full-time jobs. An incredible waste. The fact that Sweden has an unemployment crisis at the same time as point 2 is approaching is a bit ominous.
6. Are we ready for China's export shock?
The first shock came in the early 2000s when China flooded the Western world with cheap and simple goods. Now it's time for the second wave, but this time it's about high technology, everything from electric cars to medical technology. This is partly driven by the fact that China's economy is sluggish after a real estate bubble burst and now has a large overcapacity in its industry. For European consumers, the Chinese invasion may mean lower prices, but it also puts great pressure on the industry, not least the car manufacturers in Germany and thus also on Swedish companies.
7. What happens to the debt mountains?
A trend in 2025 was that the world's debt increased rapidly. Concerns about high government debt contributed to political turbulence in both the UK and France during the year, and the US's galloping budget deficit is also making the financial market more and more nervous. This problem is nothing new, but can be compared to a train crash in slow motion, but watch out for unexpected interest rate increases when borrowing is needed for both defense equipment and leaky welfare systems in 2026.
8. Peace or new war?
Some kind of peace settlement in Ukraine would of course be very welcome news, and many countries in Europe probably also expect to play a role in the reconstruction of the country. At the same time, China's arms race around Taiwan is becoming increasingly loud. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that the country should be ready to invade the island by 2027. A conflict in Taiwan, where most of the world's microchips are manufactured, would be very bad news for the world economy. To put it mildly.
9. Will Stegra survive?
It took only six months after Northvolt's bankruptcy before the ground began to shake under another of venture capitalist Harald Mix's megaprojects. Stegra needs to raise more money in early 2026 or the company risks collapsing. The year ended with some happy news, however, where the EU's scrapped ban on combustion engines is described as positive for demand for Stegra's product "green steel". If they manage to get production started, of course.
10. What is money?
This simple question has rarely been more relevant. The reason is stablecoins, a variant of cryptocurrencies but whose value is linked to "old" money like the US dollar. The phenomenon took off in 2025, has been embraced by Donald Trump's USA and will by all accounts accelerate in 2026. Stablecoins may eventually challenge the banking system but also the power of central banks and states. Who should have the right to create money and who should be allowed to decide what money should be? Consumer companies like Klarna are launching their own stablecoins in 2026 and if it turns out to be smoother and cheaper to use than traditional bank money, it could take off.
2. Börjar AI ta jobben?
Antingen kraschar AI-bolagen på börsen eller så kraschar AI-bolagen arbetsmarknaden. Så skulle dilemmat kring den nya teknologin kunna sammanfattas. Investeringar i AI måste betala sig på ett eller annat sätt och det snabbaste sättet är att skära ned på personal. Under 2025 sågs redan flera exempel på det och 2026 kan bli året då AI övertar allt fler uppgifter, något som framförallt spås slå mot unga människor i början på karriären. Upplagt för dålig stämning. Men det kan förstås gå bra också. Ska vi tro Elon Musk, som under 2025 ökade sin förmögenhet till rekordsiffran 6 800 miljarder kronor (!) kommer AI göra så att alla människor blir rika och kan leva i överflöd. Skönt att veta.
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