ANALYSIS—"This
is not the end, but the beginning," deputy leader Piyabutr
Saengkanokkul told supporters of Future Forward after judges dissolved
the party and banned its executives from politics for a decade. "This
will spread like wildfire."
The ruling by the notoriously biased Constitutional Court has torn a bitterly divided kingdom even further apart. Millions of Thais who want democracy, freedom of speech and an end to corruption can now see more clearly than ever that the royalist elite and the military are determined to hold onto power and keep the country stuck in the past.
The case hinged on whether a 191 million baht loan to Future Forward from party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit — which was essential for the party to survive because the Election Commission had forbidden fundraising and donations — was illegal.
There is no law against a political party accepting loans. Although Thailand's latest law on political parties has rules limiting donations, global accounting standards are clear that a loan should not be classified as income or a donation — it's a debt to be repaid.
So to find Future Forward guilty, and destroy the party, the judges had to find another excuse. In their ruling, they said the rate of interest Thanathorn charged Future Forward on the loan was too low, and argued that this meant he was trying to get total control over the party for his own personal gain. It was a ridiculous ruling.
But although the verdict was absurd, it was expected. I predicted it in my previous analysis, which you can read here: https://www.facebook.com/zenjournalist/posts/10157559056721154
The ruling is just the latest injustice in a long campaign by the royalist elite to undermine democracy. They have been fighting against democracy ever since the 1932 revolution that ended absolute monarchy in Siam. The elite hate democracy because it is based on the principle that everybody is equal, while they are determined to ensure that Thailand remains a hierarchical society in which they occupy an exalted position near the top.
The Election Commission and Constitutional Court have routinely ruled against pro-democracy parties like Future Forward, Pheu Thai, and Thai Raksa Chart which was dissolved before it could even compete in last year's election. Again and again they have made rulings that keep power in the hands of the royalist regime, often making ridiculous interpretations of the law in order to reach the verdict that the palace and the military wanted.
King Vajiralongkorn and the fanatically royalist army chief Apirat Kongsompong have been determined to destroy the Future Forward Party ever since it was launched, and especially after its stunning performance in the 2019 elections when it won 81 seats.
The king is paranoid about the party, and the growing tendency particularly among younger Thais to stand up for democracy and human rights and openly criticise the military and monarchy, especially on social media.
Future Forward wanted to build a democratic Thailand while Vajiralongkorn wants to drag the country back into the past to the days of absolute monarchy. The palace made it clear to the Thai judiciary and royalist elite that the party must be crushed and its leaders jailed or driven out of politics.
Apirat, who the king plans to instal as prime minister once he is eligible in a few years, also hates Future Forward, which was campaigning for the military to stay out of politics and for conscription to be abolished.
In October, Apirat made a hysterical speech that directly attacked Thanathorn and Future Forward. He claimed that leftist academics, communists, corrupt politicians and evil foreigners were conspiring to destroy Thailand using techniques of "hybrid warfare" such as propaganda, sedition, protests, and misinformation including fake news.
Apirat's obsession with a communist threat showed how stuck in the past he remains, and his conspiracy theory is absurd — clearly it is the palace and the Thai regime that use propaganda, brainwashing and fake news to try to hold on to power and undermine democracy.
Vajiralongkorn rules Thailand through fear. Only the most brainwashed or deluded Thais have any respect or the king, but everybody is afraid of him, and with good reason. Rama X has shown repeatedly that he is a violent and unstable monarch who hates democracy so much that he is trying to have all traces of the 1932 revolution removed from Thailand’s historic architecture.
Several people in his inner circle have been murdered after doing something to anger him. Many more have been imprisoned and tortured, often for trivial reasons. Vajiralongkorn's previous three wives, and his "noble consort" Sineenat "Koi" Wongvajirapakdi, were all treated with appalling cruelty after he grew bored of them.
Vajiralongkorn was not even in Thailand when the verdict was announced. Thailand's king spends hardly any time in his own country, preferring to live in luxury in Europe at the expense of Thai taxpayers.
Since February 8, when he returned from a one-day trip to Thailand, Vajiralongkorn has been staying at the five-star Hotel Waldegg in the Swiss mountain resort of Engelberg with his wife Queen Suthida and a large entourage of dozens of palace officials and servants.
Previously he lived most of the time at the Grand Hotel Sonnenbichl in the German town of Garmish-Partenkirchen with his consort Koi and a harem of other mistresses, but after Koi was purged last October he started spending more time with his wife, mostly in Switzerland.
Vajiralongkorn is aware he is widely hated, and he has taken extreme measures to prevent his regime being overthrown. He has created a new elite military force, the Rachawallop 904 Royal Guard, under his direct command, and also taken control of other key military units in Bangkok. All are commanded by ultraroyalist generals. Meanwhile, other military units were moved out of the city. Rama X has total military control of the capital.
Thailand's monarchy and military claim to be sacred institutions that have worked tirelessly to develop the kingdom and protect the people. But in reality, the monarchy has oppressed and subjugated Thais throughout history, and the military has hardly ever fought in a real war. Thai soldiers have killed far more defenceless Thai civilians than enemy foreign troops during the era of the Chakri monarchy. Both institutions ceaselessly meddle in politics and enrich themselves with the tax paid by hardworking Thais.
The judiciary claims to be fair and honest, but most Thai judges are corrupt and incompetent, and they have always stood on the side of the elite against ordinary people, regardless of the law, or who was right or wrong.
Thais in the Red Shirt movement that emerged after the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin Shinawatra, the most popular and successful prime minister in the country's history, learned all this more than a decade ago. They described the process of seeing the truth about Thailand as becoming "ตาสว่าง", which roughly translates in English as being awakened, or having your eyes opened.
The Red Shirt movement had a diverse support base but most of its members were Thais from poorer regions of the north and the northeast, and the Lao underclass in Bangkok. Future Forward has much broader support across Thailand, including among the middle class and progressive members of the elite in Bangkok. It attracted supporters of all ages, but was particularly popular among younger Thais.
The clumsiness and obvious unfairness of the destruction of the Future Forward Party will ensure that many more Thais become ตาสว่าง and see through the lies of the military and monarchy.
A day before the verdict that dissolved Thailand's most progressive political party and banned its most charismatic leaders from politics, news emerged that a 20-year-old man in Chonburi had been arrested and detained without bail for allegedly criticising the monarchy on Twitter.
The timing of the arrest suggests the regime was terrified about the social media backlash they would face after crushing Future Forward, and so targeted one online critic to try to scare other Thais into silence. This is how the monarchy has always silenced criticism — by targeting a few unlucky people with terrible punishments. Kill the chicken to scare the monkey.
But if this was their plan, it didn't work. Thai social media was on fire yesterday over the treatment of the young man who is facing years in jail, and #saveนิรนาม was the top trending hashtag on Thai Twitter.
Today, social media was totally ablaze with anger and despair. The top hashtag was #Saveอนาคตใหม่. Prayut Chan-ocha , puppet prime minister of the Thai regime until his likely replacement by Apirat in a couple of years, issued a statement on Facebook and Twitter after the court decision, calling on the opposition to be responsible and constructive.
His comments unleashed an avalanche of online criticism, and were swiftly deleted on both platforms, in an extraordinary display of cowardice. Thailand's prime minister, a former army chief who claims to be a tough military hero, fled from the field of social media battle because he was unable to handle some critical tweets.
The 10-year ban on executive members of Future Forward has cut the party's number of MPs in parliament to 64. They will have to find another political party to join within 60 days, and Future Forward leaders have said a new party has been created for them to join.
More importantly, Thanathorn has already made clear in several interviews that he expected the party to be dissolved, and he already had a strategy to deal with this. As well as creating a new party for the remaining Future Forward MPs, Thanathorn and Piyabutr will also build a mass movement to push for political change. Given the corruption and incompetence of Thailand's parliament, Thanathorn and Piyabutr can be much more effective outside the formal political system than working within it to try to achieve positive change against impossible odds.
This is why the clumsy destruction of Future Forward was such a stupid decision by the Thai regime. They have worsened the kingdom's divisions, alienated millions of Thais, particularly among the younger generation who are the country's future, and it's now clear to everybody that there is no democracy or fairness in Thailand, it was all just a lie.
The regime thought they could easily crush the democracy movement. They thought they were playing by the old rules. They didn’t understand that they are fighting the future. They didn't understand that Future Forward is not just an ordinary political party that can be neutralised by being dissolved. It is a mass movement, and what happened today will only make it stronger.
Thanathorn always knew that Future Forward would be dissolved. He knows he's likely to end up in jail — it's something he has predicted ever since he launched the party. He was not focusing on Thai parliamentary politics, he was playing a bigger game — opening the eyes of Thailand's people to the injustice and double standards that are destroying the kingdom. Today's verdict showed the royalist elite fell into the trap. All Thais can now see there is no real democracy or rule of law in the kingdom.
Piyabutr predicted a wildfire, but the rise of open dissent is more likely to be a slow burn, due to fear of Vajiralongkorn. Everybody knows that the king and Apirat won't hesitate to order another massacre if protesters take to the streets.
But sooner or later, people will rise up and kick the monarchy and military out of politics. It's impossible to keep a country stuck in the past forever, however hard you try. And when the true history of Thailand's monarchy is written, when the country is finally free, today will be recognised as a crucial moment at the beginning of the end of the old regime.
The ruling by the notoriously biased Constitutional Court has torn a bitterly divided kingdom even further apart. Millions of Thais who want democracy, freedom of speech and an end to corruption can now see more clearly than ever that the royalist elite and the military are determined to hold onto power and keep the country stuck in the past.
The case hinged on whether a 191 million baht loan to Future Forward from party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit — which was essential for the party to survive because the Election Commission had forbidden fundraising and donations — was illegal.
There is no law against a political party accepting loans. Although Thailand's latest law on political parties has rules limiting donations, global accounting standards are clear that a loan should not be classified as income or a donation — it's a debt to be repaid.
So to find Future Forward guilty, and destroy the party, the judges had to find another excuse. In their ruling, they said the rate of interest Thanathorn charged Future Forward on the loan was too low, and argued that this meant he was trying to get total control over the party for his own personal gain. It was a ridiculous ruling.
But although the verdict was absurd, it was expected. I predicted it in my previous analysis, which you can read here: https://www.facebook.com/zenjournalist/posts/10157559056721154
The ruling is just the latest injustice in a long campaign by the royalist elite to undermine democracy. They have been fighting against democracy ever since the 1932 revolution that ended absolute monarchy in Siam. The elite hate democracy because it is based on the principle that everybody is equal, while they are determined to ensure that Thailand remains a hierarchical society in which they occupy an exalted position near the top.
The Election Commission and Constitutional Court have routinely ruled against pro-democracy parties like Future Forward, Pheu Thai, and Thai Raksa Chart which was dissolved before it could even compete in last year's election. Again and again they have made rulings that keep power in the hands of the royalist regime, often making ridiculous interpretations of the law in order to reach the verdict that the palace and the military wanted.
King Vajiralongkorn and the fanatically royalist army chief Apirat Kongsompong have been determined to destroy the Future Forward Party ever since it was launched, and especially after its stunning performance in the 2019 elections when it won 81 seats.
The king is paranoid about the party, and the growing tendency particularly among younger Thais to stand up for democracy and human rights and openly criticise the military and monarchy, especially on social media.
Future Forward wanted to build a democratic Thailand while Vajiralongkorn wants to drag the country back into the past to the days of absolute monarchy. The palace made it clear to the Thai judiciary and royalist elite that the party must be crushed and its leaders jailed or driven out of politics.
Apirat, who the king plans to instal as prime minister once he is eligible in a few years, also hates Future Forward, which was campaigning for the military to stay out of politics and for conscription to be abolished.
In October, Apirat made a hysterical speech that directly attacked Thanathorn and Future Forward. He claimed that leftist academics, communists, corrupt politicians and evil foreigners were conspiring to destroy Thailand using techniques of "hybrid warfare" such as propaganda, sedition, protests, and misinformation including fake news.
Apirat's obsession with a communist threat showed how stuck in the past he remains, and his conspiracy theory is absurd — clearly it is the palace and the Thai regime that use propaganda, brainwashing and fake news to try to hold on to power and undermine democracy.
Vajiralongkorn rules Thailand through fear. Only the most brainwashed or deluded Thais have any respect or the king, but everybody is afraid of him, and with good reason. Rama X has shown repeatedly that he is a violent and unstable monarch who hates democracy so much that he is trying to have all traces of the 1932 revolution removed from Thailand’s historic architecture.
Several people in his inner circle have been murdered after doing something to anger him. Many more have been imprisoned and tortured, often for trivial reasons. Vajiralongkorn's previous three wives, and his "noble consort" Sineenat "Koi" Wongvajirapakdi, were all treated with appalling cruelty after he grew bored of them.
Vajiralongkorn was not even in Thailand when the verdict was announced. Thailand's king spends hardly any time in his own country, preferring to live in luxury in Europe at the expense of Thai taxpayers.
Since February 8, when he returned from a one-day trip to Thailand, Vajiralongkorn has been staying at the five-star Hotel Waldegg in the Swiss mountain resort of Engelberg with his wife Queen Suthida and a large entourage of dozens of palace officials and servants.
Previously he lived most of the time at the Grand Hotel Sonnenbichl in the German town of Garmish-Partenkirchen with his consort Koi and a harem of other mistresses, but after Koi was purged last October he started spending more time with his wife, mostly in Switzerland.
Vajiralongkorn is aware he is widely hated, and he has taken extreme measures to prevent his regime being overthrown. He has created a new elite military force, the Rachawallop 904 Royal Guard, under his direct command, and also taken control of other key military units in Bangkok. All are commanded by ultraroyalist generals. Meanwhile, other military units were moved out of the city. Rama X has total military control of the capital.
Thailand's monarchy and military claim to be sacred institutions that have worked tirelessly to develop the kingdom and protect the people. But in reality, the monarchy has oppressed and subjugated Thais throughout history, and the military has hardly ever fought in a real war. Thai soldiers have killed far more defenceless Thai civilians than enemy foreign troops during the era of the Chakri monarchy. Both institutions ceaselessly meddle in politics and enrich themselves with the tax paid by hardworking Thais.
The judiciary claims to be fair and honest, but most Thai judges are corrupt and incompetent, and they have always stood on the side of the elite against ordinary people, regardless of the law, or who was right or wrong.
Thais in the Red Shirt movement that emerged after the 2006 coup that toppled Thaksin Shinawatra, the most popular and successful prime minister in the country's history, learned all this more than a decade ago. They described the process of seeing the truth about Thailand as becoming "ตาสว่าง", which roughly translates in English as being awakened, or having your eyes opened.
The Red Shirt movement had a diverse support base but most of its members were Thais from poorer regions of the north and the northeast, and the Lao underclass in Bangkok. Future Forward has much broader support across Thailand, including among the middle class and progressive members of the elite in Bangkok. It attracted supporters of all ages, but was particularly popular among younger Thais.
The clumsiness and obvious unfairness of the destruction of the Future Forward Party will ensure that many more Thais become ตาสว่าง and see through the lies of the military and monarchy.
A day before the verdict that dissolved Thailand's most progressive political party and banned its most charismatic leaders from politics, news emerged that a 20-year-old man in Chonburi had been arrested and detained without bail for allegedly criticising the monarchy on Twitter.
The timing of the arrest suggests the regime was terrified about the social media backlash they would face after crushing Future Forward, and so targeted one online critic to try to scare other Thais into silence. This is how the monarchy has always silenced criticism — by targeting a few unlucky people with terrible punishments. Kill the chicken to scare the monkey.
But if this was their plan, it didn't work. Thai social media was on fire yesterday over the treatment of the young man who is facing years in jail, and #saveนิรนาม was the top trending hashtag on Thai Twitter.
Today, social media was totally ablaze with anger and despair. The top hashtag was #Saveอนาคตใหม่. Prayut Chan-ocha , puppet prime minister of the Thai regime until his likely replacement by Apirat in a couple of years, issued a statement on Facebook and Twitter after the court decision, calling on the opposition to be responsible and constructive.
His comments unleashed an avalanche of online criticism, and were swiftly deleted on both platforms, in an extraordinary display of cowardice. Thailand's prime minister, a former army chief who claims to be a tough military hero, fled from the field of social media battle because he was unable to handle some critical tweets.
The 10-year ban on executive members of Future Forward has cut the party's number of MPs in parliament to 64. They will have to find another political party to join within 60 days, and Future Forward leaders have said a new party has been created for them to join.
More importantly, Thanathorn has already made clear in several interviews that he expected the party to be dissolved, and he already had a strategy to deal with this. As well as creating a new party for the remaining Future Forward MPs, Thanathorn and Piyabutr will also build a mass movement to push for political change. Given the corruption and incompetence of Thailand's parliament, Thanathorn and Piyabutr can be much more effective outside the formal political system than working within it to try to achieve positive change against impossible odds.
This is why the clumsy destruction of Future Forward was such a stupid decision by the Thai regime. They have worsened the kingdom's divisions, alienated millions of Thais, particularly among the younger generation who are the country's future, and it's now clear to everybody that there is no democracy or fairness in Thailand, it was all just a lie.
The regime thought they could easily crush the democracy movement. They thought they were playing by the old rules. They didn’t understand that they are fighting the future. They didn't understand that Future Forward is not just an ordinary political party that can be neutralised by being dissolved. It is a mass movement, and what happened today will only make it stronger.
Thanathorn always knew that Future Forward would be dissolved. He knows he's likely to end up in jail — it's something he has predicted ever since he launched the party. He was not focusing on Thai parliamentary politics, he was playing a bigger game — opening the eyes of Thailand's people to the injustice and double standards that are destroying the kingdom. Today's verdict showed the royalist elite fell into the trap. All Thais can now see there is no real democracy or rule of law in the kingdom.
Piyabutr predicted a wildfire, but the rise of open dissent is more likely to be a slow burn, due to fear of Vajiralongkorn. Everybody knows that the king and Apirat won't hesitate to order another massacre if protesters take to the streets.
But sooner or later, people will rise up and kick the monarchy and military out of politics. It's impossible to keep a country stuck in the past forever, however hard you try. And when the true history of Thailand's monarchy is written, when the country is finally free, today will be recognised as a crucial moment at the beginning of the end of the old regime.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar