Extreme heat has become five times more common in Australia
This weekend up to 48 degrees is expected • New study: Due to climate change
Australia is in the middle of what could be a new “black summer” – with extreme heat and huge bushfires.
And the future could be even hotter:
– It’s getting worse and worse and whether we like it or not, there is ultimately a limit to what we humans can actually physically handle, a researcher tells the British The Guardian.
Since early January, Australia has experienced its worst heatwave since the “Black Summer” of 2019–2020. Despite a weak La Niña having a dampening effect on the intensity.
Temperatures rose to over 40 degrees in large parts of the country and caused major bushfires in Victoria. Over 400,000 hectares have already burned in the state, which is equivalent to about 800,000 football pitches.
And it will get worse. This weekend and throughout the rest of January, a severe heatwave is expected in southeastern Australia. The risk of fires is high and dangerously high temperatures are expected.
Inland, maximum temperatures can be well above 40 degrees and up to 48 degrees – seven days in a row. This is more than during the heatwave at the beginning of January.
– First it will be hottest in South Australia and in a few days it will be hottest towards Victoria and New South Wales instead. When it is this dry and windy, there is not only a risk of fires breaking out – but they will probably spread faster too. What is unusual now is that the heat is so close to the coast, says Lasse Rydqvist, meteorologist at Klart.
There will be no direct coolness at night either, when the temperature will be 25–30 degrees.
“Should be rare”
A new study from the international research group World Weather Attribution (WWA) examined the highest recorded temperatures in the states of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania during the three days of January 7-9, writes Australian ABC News.
The researchers write that even before human influence, there have been similar extreme temperatures, but these occurred on average only about four times per century.
In today's climate, they occur about every five years.
The report’s authors warn that similar heatwaves could occur every two years if global warming reaches 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – a level that, based on current carbon emissions, could be reached by the end of this century.
And the average temperature was 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than it would have been without climate change. 44 degrees Celsius was measured at Melbourne Airport, 42 degrees Celsius in Sydney, Penrith and Adelaide and 39 degrees Celsius at Canberra Airport.
“We know we’ve always had heatwaves, but heatwaves are extreme events. And that means they should be very rare. Suddenly they’re not nearly as rare anymore,” climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick at the Australian National University told the ABC.
“Without climate change, this event would have been significantly cooler, if it had even happened at all,” she says.
“Could happen every two years”
If global warming continues at the current rate, south-eastern Australia could expect heatwaves of this kind about every two years.
“If you think that an event like this happens every two years, it puts a strain on our bodies, the effects are very treacherous. It’s not something that happens immediately, it shows up several days later,” Professor Perkins-Kirkpatrick told the news channel.
“But this also makes you think about the very worst events, which will happen more often. Maybe not every two years, but every four or five years – and the damage they will cause to our system.
Extreme heat is Australia’s deadliest natural disaster, with more deaths in heatwaves than in all other natural disasters combined.
In addition to the bushfires that often claim lives, the Australian healthcare system is being put under acute pressure.
During the heatwave in early January, heat-related illnesses increased sharply – in Melbourne by 25 percent.
Animals were also affected, including koalas and honeybees, and bats died in their thousands.
“We must reach net zero emissions”
Professor Perkins-Kirkpatrick stresses the need to reduce emissions – which are mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels – and to adapt our societies.
“We must reach net zero emissions, and preferably as soon as possible. Unfortunately, even that is no longer enough. We are seeing more and more events like the recent heatwave. They will become more severe. And so we must adapt too,” she says.
Footnote: The methods used by WWA are well-established. However, the study on extreme heat has not yet been peer-reviewed, as the results are made available days and weeks after the event.
FACTS
“Could die out within decades”
The violent bushfires devoured 18.6 million hectares during the Black Summer of 2019-2020. Of the approximately three billion animals affected, there were defenseless koalas that did not have time to escape the fire. A third of the country's approximately 80,000 koalas died out, according to estimates. Koalas were already classified as a vulnerable species, now there are warnings that the koala could be extinct within decades, writes Climate Cosmos.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar