New Russian major offensive: "Could be decisive"

Ukraine  

New major offensive against Ukraine 

Of:  

Nelly Kronstrand,  

Olivia J Berntsson  

Published: Today 07.14  

Updated: Less than 30 min ago  

NEWS  

The Ukrainian military has previously warned of a new major Russian offensive.  

And now it has arrived - experience several assessors. 

- The coming months could be absolutely decisive for this war. Maybe it will "make it or break it" for Ukraine and Russia respectively, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.  

In recent weeks, there has been speculation about a new Russian major offensive.  

After 19 new attacks against eastern Ukraine were reported during the night of Thursday, the American think tank ISW now learns that the offensive has begun. 

- The coming months could be absolutely decisive for this war. Maybe it will "make it or break it" for Ukraine and Russia respectively, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.  

Hugo von Essen. Photo: UIP/TT  

The support scares Russia  

The think tank points to several things that indicate that a counter-offensive has been launched.  

Among other things, Russia should have stepped up its operations at the front such as between Luhansk and Kharkiv. And that at least three large forces were directed there. 

Hugo von Essen also suspects that the West's recent support for Ukraine scares Russia. 

- The West's military support is increasing more and more and at an increasingly high rate. Now latest with longer range tanks and ammunition. I think this makes Russia realize that they are in a hurry to achieve something on the ground before Ukraine is too strengthened by the support, he says.

 

Jörgen Elfving. Photo: CLAUDIO BRESCIANI / TT 

"Having a window to operate now"  

However, former lieutenant colonel Jörgen Elfving is not as sure that a counter-offensive has been launched. 

- I think more information from more sources is required before we can call it a counter-offensive or major offensive. But recently there have been indications that a Russian offensive is imminent.  

Among other things, he points out that the anniversary of when the war began, February 24, 2022, is approaching. And that the Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov took over as head of the so-called "special military operation" in January. 

- Right now there is a window for Russia before Ukraine is supplied with weapons, for example tanks from the West. 

He also points out that conditions in Ukraine are about to change. 

- In March-April, the men's period occurs. The ground will turn into mud, which means that it will be difficult to carry out any qualified military operations with ground units on the side of the roads. Russia therefore has a window to act now. 

Ukrainian soldiers ride a tank near the front in Luhansk earlier this year. Photo: LIBKOS / AP