Wolfgang Hansson
The impeachment could be the beginning of the end for Trump
Published: Less than 2 hours ago
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
COLUMNISTS
There is a lot of talk that the prosecution will benefit Trump.
A truth with great modification.
The core voters never abandon him but it becomes more difficult for him to attract new voters.
Several prosecutions are also pending behind the scenes.
According to the now firmly established "lex Trump", the ex-president can turn all scandals that would normally crush all other politicians to his own advantage.
He has done it countless times before. His misogynistic and sexist statement about how he gets women into bed. His admiring attitude towards Vladimir Putin. He has faced impeachment twice and still leads the polls on who will be the party's candidate in 2024. Trump is a political Houdini.
So, according to that model, even the impeachment of Trump should be an advantage for him.
However, I think we may be facing a situation where "lex Trump" no longer applies.
When Trump emerged in 2016, he was a breath of fresh air, a completely new kind of politician. Many were prepared to give him a chance, even if they frowned at his language and burduse demeanor.
Today, there is widespread weariness with the rambling real estate billionaire. Even many Republicans are disappointed that he can't let go of the 2020 election loss and continue his lies that extensive cheating caused him to lose.
Historic prosecution
We don't know the exact charges yet, but it's likely a violation of campaign laws when he had his lawyer pay $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels so that she would keep quiet about their sexual affair before the election campaign.
A crime that probably many voters shrug their shoulders at. But it is rarely an advantage for a politician to be under prosecution, or even worse, to be convicted of a crime.
Nor should it be underestimated that it is a historic indictment. Never before has a former president been brought to justice. It shows that no one is above the law.
In addition, the risk of a further number of prosecutions awaits in the wings.
Trump is threatened with prosecution for trying to influence the outcome of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia, where the most blatant evidence is his phone call to the chief election officer Brad Raffensperger, where Trump asks him to "find" a few thousand more votes so he can win.
The ex-president is suspected of taking hundreds of classified documents to his Palm Beach, Florida home when he left the White House. A potentially very serious offence.
Trump is threatened by several charges. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP
Clear tactics
Perhaps the most serious charge concerns Trump's role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Trump could be charged with attempting a coup d'état. The Department of Justice will decide whether there will be an indictment, likely Democratic Attorney General Merrick Garland personally.
Trump's tactics are already clear.
He portrays the prosecution not only as a witch hunt against him personally but as an attack on America.
Here he has the support of many in the Republican establishment. Even from Ron DeSantis and a number of others who are expected to be Trump's challengers for the presidency in 2024.
Tucker Carlson, influential Fox talk show host, has gone completely bananas. He calls the prosecution a greater assault than the storming of Congress.
Then all proportions have been lost.
But the attempts to drum up strong anger among Republican voters is, from Trump's point of view, the best he can do. In this situation, it is important to mobilize the followers. It has already led to a dramatic increase in contributions to his presidential campaign.
Uncertainty factor
Trump's core voters will never abandon him no matter what he does. Some other Republicans can certainly also be returned to the Trump camp.
But if he is to win the presidential election in 2024, he must gain broader support among independent voters who sometimes vote with the Republicans and sometimes with the Democrats. That is where I think he will fail.
The indictment, and not even a conviction, prevents Trump from running for president.
But the appetite of this group to vote for an indicted and perhaps convicted Trump will not be very great. Although an uncertainty factor is that we do not yet know for sure whether Biden will run for re-election or whether it will be another Democratic candidate.
However, "Lex Trump" could help Trump win the primaries early next year and become the party's nominee. In the primaries, ideologically motivated and conservative Republicans are usually in the majority. If Trump succeeds in getting his core voters out, he has a good chance despite the indictment.
But once there are presidential elections in November 2024, I think he risks running into patrols.
Stupid to judge Trump
For the Democrats, it may even be an advantage if Biden is pitted against Trump rather than a younger and fresher Republican candidate.
The Republicans push the thesis that the prosecution against Trump is politically motivated. The proof of this is that the current District Attorney, Alvin Bragg, is a Democrat. But in that case, almost all prosecutions in the United States are political. This is where the type of posts are filled in general elections in the United States. Some prosecutors are Republicans, others are Democrats. They are expected to apply the law equally to all.
But in the highly polarized United States, it seems that many Americans don't even understand how their own legal system works. Or the Republicans are just trying to exploit the fact that Bragg is a Democrat.
There is a year and a half left until the next presidential election. The indictment means that Trump will once again dominate the media completely. A lot can happen. It would be foolish to cross-certainly condemn Trump's chances of turning the situation in his favor.
But nothing says that "Lex Trump" applies forever.
