Trump has managed to stir the pot

 

Ukraine's race against time

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.

Published 19.07

Quick version

• Ukraine has invaded the Russian province of Kursk to protect its cities from Russian attacks and strengthen its negotiating positions.
• Donald Trump's threat to force peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has increased the pressure on both countries to gain territory before Trump takes office.
  
• Russia, with the help of North Korean soldiers, is intensifying its efforts to retake Kursk, which is creating a strategic and military stalemate.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj. Photo: Omar Havana / AP

Ukraine is in a race against time.

It is important to prevent Russia, with the help of North Korean soldiers, from taking back the Russian province of Kursk before Trump takes office. He has threatened to force the parties to the negotiating table.

Ukraine needs its best negotiating card.

After a very long period of being a war of attrition where neither side gained much ground, both Russia and Ukraine have suddenly become in a hurry to seize as much territory as possible.

Above all, it is about Kursk in Russia, which Ukraine invaded by surprise in August.

They caught the Russians with their pants down and managed to take a lot of ground in a short time.

Ukraine's goal was to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian artillery attacks and give their own troops a morale boost.

But after Donald Trump won the presidential election in November, the Kursk operation has taken on a new meaning.

During the election campaign, Trump claimed that he would resolve the Ukraine war in 24 hours. Perhaps even before he takes office. He has threatened to force Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table to end the war.

If Russia refuses, Trump intends to give Ukraine a lot of advanced weapons.

If Ukraine refuses, he will cut off all aid to the country.

Whether the tactic will work remains to be seen.

Donald Trump. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP

Breaking the stalemate

But clearly Trump has managed to stir the pot just by his verbal threats. Both sides realize that something will happen when Trump takes office that could change the conditions for a full-scale Russian invasion and break the stalemate.

Then it is important for both sides to play as well as possible.

Ukraine's offensive into Russia was humiliating for Putin, but at first the Russians did not seem to do much to retake Kursk.

That has changed.

Russia is intensifying its offensive against the Ukrainian positions in Kursk. To avoid picking too many soldiers from eastern Ukraine, Putin has instead deployed soldiers from North Korean. dictator Kim Jong-un has sent at least 10,000 soldiers in exchange for Russian rocket technology that he can use to strengthen the country's threat potential as a nuclear-armed nation.

Intercepted conversations in Russia indicate that North Korean soldiers are now dying and being injured in greater numbers on the battlefield. An indication of the intensifying fighting. The Russians are reported to be burning the faces of North Korean soldiers to hide their origins.

But Russia has managed to take back 40 percent of the land that Ukraine initially took.

For Ukraine, it could be crucial if it manages to hold parts of the Kursk province. Then Kiev will have a strong bargaining chip if Trump forces peace talks. Ukraine could exchange Russian territory for part of the terrain that Russia holds in Ukraine.

Putin. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP

Russian soldiers in Kursk. Photo: AP

Snail speed

For Putin, it is equally important to take back Kursk. Then Russia will be in a better position in any negotiations.

That is why we are now seeing how the fighting is intensifying.

The Russians are also pressing on in eastern Ukraine, but things are going notoriously slowly there. They are taking ground meter by meter, but at a snail's pace and with heavy losses. Kursk seems to be the top priority for both Russia and Ukraine right now.

Both seem to hope that they will be able to use Trump's entry on the scene to their advantage. Zelenskyj has met Trump several times in recent months and seems to think he knows how to handle him. Trump has expressed his approval of Putin many times.

That leaves Europe, which Trump rarely has anything positive to say about.

Yesterday, the heads of government of a number of NATO countries met with Zelenskyj to discuss the new situation. Today, an EU summit begins in Brussels, where the leaders will also discuss how to handle a situation in which Trump completely stops or sharply cuts support for Ukraine. How should Europe act? How much can Europe compensate for the lack of American support?

Trump takes office with good timing. There is war fatigue in many countries in Europe. Many want to see a peace settlement. But the fear is that it will end with Putin emerging victorious. Something that could give him the nerve to attack other countries.

Great powers eliminated

At yesterday's meeting, Zelensky admitted for the first time that Ukraine will not be able to take back Crimea and the territories in eastern Ukraine that Russia has subjugated. An admission that indicates a readiness to give up territory in exchange for security guarantees from NATO.

For Europe, the timing is the worst imaginable. France is weakened by a government crisis. In Germany, Chancellor Scholz has just resigned and new elections are due in February.

With Europe's two great powers on the verge of a stalemate, it will not be easy to face Trump with a united European front.

Trump has good opportunities to rule and divide. The only one who benefits from it is Vladimir Putin.