The tactic: This is how they will get the West's support to hook

Wolfgang Hansson  

Time speaks for Putin  

Published: Less than 3 hours ago 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

COLUMNISTS  

Time speaks for Putin.  

At least that is what the Russian president himself and many with him believe. 

Russia's tactic is to prolong the war so that the West eventually tires of supporting Ukraine. Right now, a certain nervousness is noticeable in the West. The war has entered a stagnant phase where it is harder to see any Ukrainian successes. 

The Russian terror bombings continue at the same time as the Russian private army Wagner has had some success in eastern Ukraine, which has broken Kiev's tailwind.  

There is also concern that the 300,000 troops that Russia has mobilized will soon be deployed in a new Russian offensive. Even if it's not about highly trained troops, it's still manpower that must be stopped if they advance.  

Ukraine also claims that Russia plans to mobilize another half a million men.  

The sudden desire from the West to send heavy tanks to Ukraine should be seen in that light. Tanks required in case Ukraine is to go on the offensive and take back more of the areas conquered by Russia. The West wants to see the war end as quickly as possible.  

The problem is that it will take time before the tanks can be in place.  

For Russia, the war has so far been a fiasco. Whatever Putin and his army have been up to, it has gone to hell. What Putin hoped would be a quick affair of a week or two before the Kremlin installed an obedient regime in Kyiv has almost dragged on for a year. There is no end in sight.  

But that does not mean that Russia has lost the war. Far from there.  

Instead, Putin has adapted to the new conditions. The goal is still to crush Ukraine as an independent state, but it may take the time it takes. 

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AP  

Putin has money  

Despite the harsh sanctions from the West, Putin has no major problems financing the war. Thanks to the high oil price, the billions of income are still trickling in. It is true that Russia has to give large buyers such as India and China a discount, but it has no problem selling the oil and gas.  

There is no indication that countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America will stop behind the sanctions. They see this as the West's war. Even if you don't like the war, strikingly many people continue to do business with Russia.  

Consider that even NATO country Turkey has not imposed sanctions. On the contrary, there is information that sanctioned goods are funneled through the country to Russia.  

Russia also operates from help from other countries. History has taught us that there are always unscrupulous actors who are prepared to violate sanctions if only the money is right.  

Despite all the intelligence that Russia is running out of artillery ammunition and precision-guided cruise missiles, even NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg recently warned against underestimating the Russians. 

- They are mobilizing more troops, they are working hard to get more weapons and ammunition and they have shown a willingness to suffer but still continue the war, says Stoltenberg. 

Much has gone against Russia. Ukraine's strong motivation to fight is an important reason. Another is the Western world's gradually increased support, both in the form of weapons and financial support

US elections can change everything 

 

The message from all Western leaders is unequivocal that they will support Ukraine as long as it takes.

  

But Putin doesn't think so. 

  

He is convinced that the will of the West will bend somewhere along the way, if only the war goes on long enough.  

 

He bases this mainly on two things.  

 

The EU consists of 27 countries where unanimity is required when it comes to sanctions against Russia. Within the EU there are a number of countries that are more pro-Russian than others. Hungary, Italy and Greece are some countries where you can already see that support for Ukraine is wavering.  

 

When the EU recently decided to borrow SEK 180 billion to pay part of the Ukrainian state's expenses, Hungary put obstacles in the way for a long time.  

 

The US will hold presidential elections in less than two years. If Donald Trump or any other Republican candidate wins, the superpower's policy towards Ukraine could change drastically. There is already a sense of war fatigue in the Republican majority in the newly elected House of Representatives, where there is talk of reducing aid to Ukraine. 

  

Donald Trump has definitely not abandoned his "America first" policy.  

Putin reckons that if he can keep the war going until the election, new opportunities will open up for Russia.  

 

As long as the war continues, Ukraine is prevented from developing economically and makes the country's integration with the West impossible. Although it currently looks difficult for Russia to win the war, even a frozen conflict, of the kind that has been going on in eastern Ukraine since 2014, serves Russia's interests. 

 

It is often debated whether Russia is at any stage prepared to use nuclear weapons to turn the war around.  

 

The question is less often asked how NATO would act if Russia is about to win the war.  

 

Is the West prepared to enter militarily directly into the war to stop Russia but then also risk a world war?