Do we really want peace in Ukraine?

Wolfgang Hansson 

 

Is it really peace we want? 

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. 

 

COLUMNISTS  

 

In almost all wars, the outside world usually says that the most important thing is to end the killing. Then you can resolve the conflicts later.  

 

But in Ukraine, most people seem prepared to accept any loss of human life.  

 

So is it really peace we want? 

 

The battles on the front line, most recently around the town of

Bachmut,

are known by military experts as the meat grinder. A terribly cynical and emotional expression to describe the mass slaughter of people going on in the war.  

 

There are no firm figures from either side as to how many soldiers were killed. Just calculations from various western intelligence agencies that are impossible to verify.  

 

But if we accept them, around 200,000 Russian soldiers were either killed or wounded in the war during the year of the Russian invasion. It should be compared with 15,000 fallen Russian soldiers during ten years of Soviet occupation in

Afghanistan

, which was a contributing factor to the collapse of the Soviet Empire.  

 

Even if the losses on the Ukrainian side would be somewhat lower, it is still about dead and wounded on a scale that we have not seen in any war in Europe (and perhaps the world) since the Second World War.

 

Add to that the heavy civilian losses in

Ukraine.

At least 10,000 dead but probably many more and 14 million refugees inside and outside the country.  

 

Yet there are no calls for peace negotiations. The few who dare to express such opinions are regarded almost with contempt. Whether it is the former left-wing leader Gudrun Schyman or tens of thousands of German peace activists demonstrating in the streets of Berlin, they are seen as Putin's lackeys  

 

The leaders of Europe and the United States understandably assume that

Vladimir Putin.

cannot be trusted. Even if a peace agreement were to be reached, most people expect him to ignore it. Just as he did with the peace accords that were reached in Ukraine after Russia started the war in the eastern parts of the country in 2014. 

Drone image of a growing cemetery in Butja that is being filled with new graves. Photo: JERKER IVARSSON  

 

Wipe out 

  

Putin would only use a ceasefire to rebuild his army. Given the Russian dictator's stated goal of wiping out Ukraine as an independent state, this is not an unreasonable reasoning.  

 

But that in turn leads to the question, how can the war then end? 

 

If Ukraine and the West wait for Putin to disappear, it could be a very long war. 

 

Today, quite optimistic voices are still heard from Washington, Brussels and Kiev. As soon as Ukraine gets tanks and long-range artillery from the West, they will be able to go on the offensive and take back the areas that Russia conquered. Not only in the last year but also in the 2014 war.  

 

The biggest optimists even believe it is possible for Ukraine to take Crimea back. 

 

But how realistic are those hopes?  

 

For several months, the front has stood virtually still. Bachmut is one of those cities where every meter is fought for. Now it is said that Ukraine plans to make a strategic retreat to new fortifications located a little further away. There, trench warfare continues according to the First World War model.  

 

Most in the West hope that Ukraine will be able to take back its territories, but an at least as, if not more, realistic outcome is that the front lines continue to be relatively stationary. Even with tanks from the West.  

 

The view that neither side can win the war is widespread among military decision-makers in the West.  

 

In such a situation, it is all about persistence. Who has the most men to send as cannon fodder?  

  

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/AP  

 

The Endurance of the West 

 

To some extent, the outcome of the war is about the motivation to fight. There we know that Ukraine is superior. But it is also about the motivation of the leaders.  

 

Despite the huge miscalculations and setbacks, Putin shows no signs of giving up on his imperial dream. On the contrary, he is more determined than ever to continue the war. Ukrainian President Zelensky is equally determined to continue to resist. 

But what about Europe and the US?  

The leaders repeat as a mantra that they should support Ukraine as long as needed. But what if the war just goes on and on like the one that started in 2014? 

Many are convinced that the West does not have the same endurance as Russia and Ukraine. At some point, the voters in the EU and the US will have had enough. They will no longer accept the enormous costs of aid to Ukraine.  

When that time will come is impossible to say. But the risk is that it will occur before the Russian population has had enough of body bags and revolts against Putin. 

In such a situation, the West and Ukraine will likely be faced with a choice between plague and cholera. Let even more die in the war or sit down at a negotiating table with Putin.