Unpopular candidates in the replay no one wants

Wolfgang Hansson  

The rematch that nobody really wants  

Published: Today 16.37  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

Joe Biden wants to stay in the White House. Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP 

COLUMNISTS 

There weren't exactly cheers from across the Atlantic when Joe Biden announced he was running for re-election.  

A repeat of the last presidential election match against Donald Trump is the last thing voters want.  

But all indications are that that is what they will get. 

Seven out of ten Americans do not want to see Joe Biden as a candidate in the 2024 election. That includes 45 percent of Democratic voters.  

Regardless of what the scientists say about 70 being the new 50 and 85 being the new 70, voters worry about Joe Biden's age. They fear that he will not have the intellectual capacity and stamina required to manage the world's superpower.  

Biden's stumbling over words, mispronunciations, and vain attempts to appear physically alert by jogging to the front of the stage all contribute to that. This election campaign will be much more demanding than the last one.  

Then the pandemic allowed Biden to hold many of his campaign rallies from his own basement in Wilmington. Delaware. This time he is forced out on grueling promotional tours. How does he manage it?  

If Biden is re-elected, he will be 86 years old when he retires. He is already America's oldest president of all time.  

But it's not just about age. 

Biden is not a very popular president. Only 42 percent of Americans think he is doing a good job. Among the lowest numbers for any president after just over two years in power. 

Most unpopular  

One of the few who was even less popular after the corresponding time was Donald Trump.

After Biden's announcement, the 2024 election thus appears to be a rematch between two of America's most unpopular presidents.  

One of Joe Biden's main reasons for running for re-election is precisely that his likely challenger is called Donald Trump. Biden sees himself as the only Democrat who has the ability to defeat Trump. He sees the 2020 victory as convincing proof of that.  

One might think that the Democrats should be able to shake up a younger and more exciting candidate, but as a sitting president, Biden, despite his age, is more or less immune to attempts by his own party to challenge him for the candidacy. The heavy names like Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer are betting on 2028 instead. 

Donald Trump gives a speech in Mar-a-lago earlier in April. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP 

On the Republican side, so far it also looks like "business as usual". Donald Trump clearly leads in opinion polls. He has even widened his lead since being indicted for violating campaign laws during the 2016 election.

Easiest to defeat  

None of the really big names, aside from Trump, have yet officially announced their candidacy. Everyone assumes that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will run and become Trump's main challenger. They also do Trump, who periodically hands out verbal smacks to the man he nicknamed Ron Desanctimonious, Ron the Pretentious. 

The initial hype surrounding DeSantis has also died down.  

As long as Trump maintains the popularity of his core voters, he has a good chance of getting the party's nomination. Those who vote in the primaries, where the candidate is chosen, are the most conservative and dedicated party supporters. 

This is exactly the scenario that Joe Biden and the Democrats are hoping for. Biden believes that Trump is the candidate he can most easily defeat. 

For the simple reason that so much of the American people detest Trump after his first four years in power.  

The 2024 election will once again be a "negative" election, decided more by who voters dislike than who they like.  

In 2020, Biden received many votes from voters who wanted to prevent Donald Trump from being re-elected at all costs. That is what he will lean towards in the next election as well. The fear of Trump retaking the White House is greater for many than the dissatisfaction with Biden's way of handling the job. 

New charges are pending  

The desire to defend abortion rights and protect democracy also becomes a strong motivating factor for Democrats to go to the polls.  

Therefore, it will be difficult for Trump to win. 

Biden also has the advantage of being president. It is very rare for an incumbent president who runs for re-election to lose. Trump did it in 2020 but it has never happened two elections in a row.  

That being said, the election is still 18 months away. That's an eternity in American politics. A lot can happen that changes the conditions.  

The threat of new and more serious charges hangs over Trump in the near future. If he is indicted for trying to influence the 2020 Georgia election or for his role in storming the Capitol, it could hurt his chances of winning the nomination.  

With Ron DeSantis or another younger Republican challenger, the equation for 2024 could be very different. Then a victory for Biden does not appear as a given.