tisdag 31 december 2024

Russian invasion

The world's response
Russia's gas supplies to Europe are halted

Today is the last day that Russian gas is being delivered to Europe via Ukraine. Tomorrow, January 1, the gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires after five years. The halted gas flow is a loss for Russia, which once had great power over the European gas market, writes the news agency Reuters.

The few remaining countries that depend on Russian gas, such as Slovakia and Austria, have arranged alternative supplies.

The market impact will likely be small, but the shift has major geopolitical significance, writes the news agency.
 
Analysis: Moscow's investment in Europe has collapsed

Tomorrow, Russian gas supplies via Ukraine to Europe, which have been ongoing for over 40 years, will cease. But Russian gas supplies have already shrunk dramatically in the wake of the Russian invasion, Reuters writes in an analysis.

The gas market share that Moscow spent half a century building up in Europe, which at its peak was about 35 percent, has fallen to about 8 percent. The EU has said that the volume will be replaced by natural gas imports and non-Russian gas pipelines.

“A repeat of the record-high gas prices in 2022 is unlikely, according to the EU, given the current modest volumes of Russian gas,” the news agency writes.

European countries have different ways of tackling this new reality, writes Oksana Bedratenko in an analysis in Voice of America. For example, Germany and the Czech Republic have invested heavily in liquefied natural gas, while countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and Austria are focusing on increasing Russian gas imports from other gas pipelines. 
 
The fighting
Russia took 4,000 square kilometers from Ukraine in 2024

Russia advanced almost 4,000 square kilometers into Ukraine in 2024. This is reported by AFP, which made the calculation using data from the Institute for the study of war, ISW.

Most of the successes were made in the fall, but the pace has since slowed down again in December. Despite this, the pace is still four times as high as during the same period last year.

At the same time, Ukraine still controls 482 square kilometers of Russian Kursk.
 
The coming year
Zelenskyj determined: “May 2025 be the year of Ukraine”

Next year, Ukraine will have to fight to strengthen its position both militarily and for possible peace talks, President Zelenskyj states in his New Year’s address.

– May 2025 be the year of Ukraine, he says.

In a post on X, Zelenskyj also writes that 2024 has been a victory in itself because Ukraine is still independent.

“We Ukrainians know what it means to fight for every day and every year of freedom,” he writes.

Despite the hopeful tones, Ukraine has had a tough year on the battlefield, and continues to lose ground to the advancing Russian troops in northeastern Kharkiv and eastern Donetsk, writes Kyiv Independent.

Putin's Russia
Putin's New Year's speech: "Everything will be fine"

President Vladimir Putin believes that Russians should be proud of what the country has achieved in the 21st century.

- Now, on the threshold of a new year, we are thinking about the future. We are sure that everything will be fine. We will only move forward, Putin said during his New Year's speech on Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Today marks exactly 25 years since Putin took power after Boris Yeltsin, who resigned on New Year's Eve 1999. In connection with this, Yeltsin urged his successor to "take care of Russia", which the Russian sitting president believes he has succeeded well.

- I have not only taken care of, but I believe that we have taken a step back from the brink, Putin said in connection with a press conference earlier in December, according to the Washington Post.

Secret documents: Russia prepared for war in the East

Secret files from 2013 and 2014 show that Russia and its military were preparing for several different scenarios in a potential war with Japan and South Korea, reports the Financial Times.

The newspaper has gained access to 29 secret Russian military files that, among other things, contain information about how Russian forces were trained for a potential war on the country's eastern flank. They are still seen as relevant to Russian strategy, according to the FT.

The plans include around 160 targets, both military and civilian, that Russia could attack. 13 power plants, including one nuclear power plant, were listed as targets in Japan.

Russia's eastern flank is identified as vulnerable in a potential war with the US and its allies.


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