Another war is definitely not what the world needs

Wolfgang Hansson  

 

Another war is definitely not what the world needs  

 

Published: Less than 2 hours ago  

 

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

 

COLUMNISTS 

  

When militaries have to hand over power to civilian rule, it is more the rule than the exception that they get cold feet at the last moment.  

 

This is exactly what is happening right now in Sudan, where rival armies have started what could develop into a full-scale civil war. 

 

Another war is certainly not what the world needs.  

 

The rivals are unusually careless even by military junta standards.  

 

They bomb from the air and shoot with heavy artillery in the middle of the capital,

Khartoum.

Without any regard for civilians. Since the fighting started this weekend, at least a hundred civilians are said to have been killed and the fighting has spread to many cities in the country, which is four times the size of Sweden. 

 

Sudan

definitely cannot be described as a success story.  

 

The military has largely ruled since independence in 1956. The last three decades under the leadership of dictator

Omar al-Bashir.

 

But then in 2019, a glimmer of hope was ignited when he was deposed in a military coup and various civil organizations began to push for democracy.  

 

          For a short period, at least on paper, the country had civilian rule. Photo: AP  

 

But in the background, it is General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who has always ruled. Partly with another general as a partner. Mohamed Hamadan Dagalo leads the militia RSF which is in practice a parallel army. So big that they sent soldiers to the civil wars in Yemen and Libya.  

 

The intention was that the two would hand over this month to a civilian government that would take over after general elections.  

 

But as so many times in the past, the talk of democracy turned out to be just a sham. Neither of the two warlords really wants to give up power and the opportunities it provides to grab a private fortune. 

 

In addition, they disagreed over a demand by Dagalo to include a hundred thousand-strong RSF force in the army and, if so, who would lead it.  

 

Potential wealth 

 

Now the two men are said to no longer speak to each other. Instead, they let the guns do the talking. The battles that took place over the weekend could very well be the prelude to a civil war.  

 

Which is the last thing both Sudan and the world need.

         

Smoke development in Sudan's capital Khartoum during Saturday. Photo: Marwan Ali/AP  

Sudan is a poor country in great need of foreign investment to get the economy going. Potential wealth exists in the form of oil and gold. But who wants to invest in a country constantly rocked by armed conflict?  

 

The US and Europe have their entire focus directed at the war in Ukraine and absolutely do not want new international conflicts on their table.  

 

That's probably why US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken quickly came out and called for an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of talks on Sudan's future governance.  

 

The US wants to quell the fighting before it develops into a full-scale war. And for once, it seems likely that that opinion is shared by both China and Russia.  

 

Unusually, the UN Security Council managed to agree on a statement condemning the violence and urging the parties to start talks.  

 

          

           General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Photo: Aron Ranen / AP  

 

The Russian Wagner Group is present in Sudan, where it extracts gold and has a collaboration with General Dagalo's RSF. However, the Russian military presence is very limited.  

 

Genocide  

 

A war would probably also indirectly draw the neighboring countries into the conflict. Egypt has strong interests in Sudan and supports General al-Burhan. Eritrea's dictator Esaias Afewerki instead has good relations with Dagalo.  

 

Sudan was shaken for many years by a civil war in the southern part of the country. It ended in 2011 with the country being divided and the new nation of South Sudan was born.  

 

           

 

            Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Photo: AP  

 

A conflict between the Arab and African populations over land and cattle has long been ongoing in Darfur in western Sudan. It led to former leader Omar al-Bashir being charged with genocide at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. But Sudan has refused to extradite him. 

 

A third of Sudan's 50 million inhabitants depend on emergency aid from the United Nations. Therefore, it is particularly serious that three UN employees have been killed in recent days in Darfur. In response, the UN has temporarily suspended food aid.  

 

For the outside world, the flare-up of fighting means a risk of a refugee flow from Sudan to neighboring countries. 

 

For the people of Sudan, the dream of democracy has turned into a nightmare.