Anti-climax when the Trump soap opera is back

Wolfgang Hansson  

Trump has bigger things to worry about 

Published: Less than 3 hours ago  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

COLUMNISTS  

Following the specter of charges against the ex-president was a bit like being thrown back to the time when Donald Trump was in the White House and an ever-ongoing media circus dominated American politics.  

Suddenly, the war in Ukraine and the economic crisis were blown away from the news channels that broadcast Trump's reborn soap opera non-stop.  

But despite all the hype, yesterday was a bit of an anti-climax.  

Trump has more reason to worry about the other impeachments in the pipeline.  

The charges that District Attorney Alvin Bragg presented yesterday contained no major surprises. The payment to porn star Stormy Daniels was already known, as were the two other payments Trump had made to other people he wanted to keep quiet. 

Basically, Trump is suspected of accounting crimes that normally would not have led to prosecution. But because the purpose of the falsely recorded payments was to hide information from the American people that could have affected the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, it is a violation of New York state election laws, according to prosecutors.  

But the legal quandaries are enough to continue to divide the United States in two. Those who think it is right to impeach Trump and that everyone should be equal before the law are mostly Democrats. Those who think the indictment is part of the "witch hunt" against the ex-president consist mostly of Republicans.  

To change that, the indictment would have had to contain new criminal allegations or, much more clearly, state exactly which crime Trump was guilty of.  

Now both sides can continue to dig into their trenches. 

Donald Trump during his speech in Florida after the court hearing in New York. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP 

Timing a problem  

Being charged with a crime is no small thing. Especially not about what in this case is about a historic indictment against a former president. At the same time, there are probably many who wished that the prosecution in just such a unique case also had more weight.  

The crime can indeed result in imprisonment, but in Trump's case, which has previously been unpunished, it is likely to be a suspended sentence or a fine.  

The fact that the prosecutor managed to collect 34 charges is due to him seeing each wrongly posted invoice or check as a separate crime that could, in theory, lead to four years in prison.  

Another problem with the indictment is that the next time Trump will appear in court is not until December. This means that a possible trial will likely coincide with the primaries where the Republicans will choose the candidate to challenge Joe Biden in November 2024. 

The timing will fuel Republican claims that the indictment is politically motivated and aimed at preventing Donald Trump from running for president.  

In the ballroom of his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, a slightly sprained ex-president counterattacked the prosecutor and the judge who he claims are "Trump haters".  

 

Donald Trump in place in the courtroom. Photo: Andrew Kelly/AP 

Dark clouds

 

 

Trump is trying to turn the indictment into something positive that can help him fire up his supporters and increase the willingness to contribute to his presidential campaign.  

But there are other dark clouds towering over the ex-president's sky.  

Charges can be expected in three more cases, all of which appear to be significantly more serious than the bribe money to a porn star. 

* The attempts to influence the outcome of the presidential election in the state of Georgia in 2020.  

Here there is a very clear proof in the form of the telephone conversation that Trump had with the election official in Georgia. There, then-President Trump urged Brad Raffensperger to find enough votes that Trump could be declared the winner. Whether there will be prosecution or not should be decided during the year. 

* Possession of classified documents.  

When Trump left the White House, he took several hundred top-secret documents with him to his private residence in Florida. When asked to return the documents, he refused.  

A serious crime that has, however, partly ended up in a different light since it became known that classified documents from his time as vice president were also found in Joe Biden's residence. However, he immediately returned these.  

Coup d'état  

* The President's involvement in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021  

Perhaps the most serious point of all should the Justice Department choose to indict Trump. Then it is about very serious crimes such as sedition and attempts to carry out a coup d'état. There is already extensive public evidence here in the form of witness interviews in Congress with many of Trump's own associates in the White House. But it is unclear if and when there will be an indictment.  

As for yesterday's court appearance, Trump has the entire Republican establishment behind him. Even a staunch Trump critic like Senator Mitt Romney believes the prosecution is politically motivated. The same opinion is shared by all of Trump's potential opponents for the presidential nomination. 

In the three cases where we are still awaiting possible indictments, leading Republicans are taking a much more wait-and-see approach because the charges are of a much more serious nature.  

In the short term, Donald Trump may benefit from the first indictment. It has already given him extra attention, higher contributions to the campaign coffers and a greater chance of winning the party's nomination. In the primaries, it is the most committed Republicans who vote.  

In the presidential election in November next year, the situation is completely different. There, Trump must attract millions of independent voters. 

But an ex-president who is under one and perhaps several agreements is unlikely to be a vote magnet for voter groups who were already skeptical of Donald Trump.