Nasa
Alarm: “Immediate danger” for catastrophic chain reaction in space
Hans Österman
Updated 01.43 | Published 01.10
Composite image of several photographs taken over a 30-minute period, showing the satellite-filled sky. Photo: Alamy Stock Photo
Scientists warn of a chain reaction in space that threatens all existing satellites.
The catastrophic scenario is known as the Kessler syndrome and would have major consequences for humanity.
– If we do nothing, we are in immediate danger, says space physicist Dan Baker.
The belt of space debris around the Earth is denser than ever. Weapons tests, rocket launches and past collisions between satellites have resulted in countless objects hurtling through space at speeds nearly seven times faster than a gun bullet.
NASA and other experts are already monitoring tens of thousands of pieces of debris from Earth. They are all larger than a tennis ball and therefore trackable. According to CNN, there are millions more objects in orbit that are so small that they cannot be detected.
“Even with the best sensors, there are limits to what can be detected. Smaller pieces of space debris are often impossible to track,” Bob Hall, director of the space company COMSPOC, told the television channel.
“A major threat”
Even small pieces of debris have the potential to cause great damage. The enormous speed means that just a centimeter-sized piece of paint would pass through metal objects. Increase the size to 10 centimeters and such a space projectile would have an explosive force equivalent to seven kilograms of TNT, according to NASA"It is easy to see how collisions between pieces of debris at such high speeds pose a major threat to our space program," the agency wrote back in 2016.
Now scientists are warning that the risk of what has long been known as the Kessler syndrome is increasing. It is a catastrophic scenario from 1978, named after NASA astrophysicist Donald Kessler, in which the amount of space debris reaches a critical mass where each collision triggers a chain reaction of several new ones. Eventually, the orbit around the Earth is so full of debris that satellites are knocked out and new space flights become impossible, writes CNN.
- The amount of objects that we have launched into space in the past four years has increased exponentially. We are approaching the situation we have always feared, says Vishnu Reddy, professor and space scientist at the University of Arizona to the television channel.
“Immediate danger”
According to Space.com, there are already 10,200 active satellites in space. Most of them are in what is called low earth orbit – a distance of 200-2,000 kilometers from Earth. Approximately 6,800 of the existing satellites belong to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, but the number is constantly increasing.Space.com writes that Musk’s future plans for the Starlink network mean that the total will exceed 40,000 satellites.
“It’s time for us to start talking seriously and realize that if we don’t do something, we are in immediate danger of making a large part of the Earth’s technological environment unusable,” said Dan Baker, director of the Space Laboratory at the University of Colorado, during a panel discussion in Washington about a month ago.
According to experts, Kessler syndrome is not a sudden event but a process over time. CNN reports that scientists disagree on whether it has already begun or not.
It can be knocked out
But the consequences for humanity would be far-reaching. In a study from 2023, two researchers warned that “all existing satellites” are threatened if the nightmare scenario becomes a reality, writes Newsweek.The report lists what is threatened by the syndrome. In addition to knocking out GPS systems, the internet and television broadcasts, a wide range of activities would be at risk
The space industry
All space flights and rocket launches may need to be canceled indefinitely until a solution is in place.
The military
GPS and other critical navigation systems are knocked out. This has major consequences in several sectors. For example, most military operations are made more difficult. Communication ceases, missiles and drones cannot be controlled and rescue operations cannot be launched.
Air traffic
Without GPS and other satellite-controlled systems, pilots find it difficult to navigate and communicate. They would also not receive weather warnings in real time. Cancelled air traffic would in turn threaten critical societal functions such as the transport of medicines and other goods.
Boat traffic
Boats also depend on satellites to navigate efficiently and safely. A return to only radar and analogue communication would greatly reduce ship traffic. This would in turn threaten world trade.
Without GPS and other satellite-controlled systems, pilots find it difficult to navigate and communicate. They would also not receive weather warnings in real time. Cancelled air traffic would in turn threaten critical societal functions such as the transport of medicines and other goods.
Boat traffic
Boats also depend on satellites to navigate efficiently and safely. A return to only radar and analogue communication would greatly reduce ship traffic. This would in turn threaten world trade.
