Hybrid war or accidents – strange leaks about cable breaks
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commentary text. Analysis and positions are those of the writer.
Updated 22.38 | Published 22.17
Quick version
- An investigation into a Malta-flagged ship has been launched after suspicions that it may have caused damage to an underwater cable between Sweden and Latvia in the Baltic Sea.
- NATO and several governments have previously suggested sabotage suspicions against Russia for similar incidents, but the Washington Post instead reports that these may be accidents according to anonymous intelligence sources.
- There has been speculation that the information to the Washington Post may have been leaked to reduce the level of conflict between the US and Russia, especially in connection with the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President.
While a minor epidemic of sudden cable breaks is affecting the Baltic Sea, the reputable Washington Post is publishing information that these are pure accidents.
Not at all the hybrid warfare that Sweden and many of our NATO neighbors claim.
In fact, there may be major political considerations behind the leaks.
Yesterday it was time again. A buried underwater cable between Latvia and Sweden was damaged at a depth of 50 meters in the Baltic Sea. The cables are marked on nautical charts precisely to prevent accidents.
The suspect is a Malta-flagged ship that recently arrived from Russia and was boarded by a Swedish armed force off Gotland, who directed the ship to Karlskrona.
Pictures show that one arm of the ship Vezhen's anchor is missing. In older pictures, the anchor is intact.
Underwater cables have previously been damaged on at least three occasions.
Most experts ruled early on that it would be pure accidents. A ship's anchor dragged along the bottom for long distances would make so much noise inside the ship that it would be impossible not to notice it.
The ships also have systems that warn if the anchor is out.
Several governments were quick to conclude that it was sabotage and pointed the finger eastward.
“Nobody believes that these cables were damaged by mistake,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius after several cable breaks in November, in which the Chinese ship Eagle S was singled out as the culprit.
Raised eyebrows
NATO has even formed a special force to protect the undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.
Therefore, a few surprised eyebrows were raised when the reputable Washington Post newspaper claimed in an article last week that it was not sabotage but pure accidents. The newspaper cited anonymous intelligence sources in the United States and Europe and spoke of an “emerging consensus” about this completely opposite reality.
The Eagle S has been anchored off Porvoo, Finland since the end of December. Photo: Jussi Nukari / AP
The sources referred to wiretapping and other secret information that would prove that there was no Russian involvement in the cable breaches.
The Washington Post’s information was no more precise than that. But it was widely disseminated.
When a normally reliable news source like the Washington Post publishes such information, of course more than a seed of doubt is sown. What if it is not sabotage but pure accidents?
The article was published the day before Donald Trump was sworn in as president. Trump promised during the election campaign that he would bring peace to Ukraine in 24 hours. He would also do it before he was formally inaugurated.
It is clear that even before he formally took office, senior figures in Trump's administration had private contacts with representatives of Russia, just as Trump was instrumental in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza.
Carrots and sticks
For Trump, it is important to show that he can break the deadlock in Ukraine and bring about peace negotiations between Putin and Zelensky.
For Trump, it is important to create an environment where he can use both carrots and sticks to get Putin to the negotiating table. Zelensky is already on board.
This is of course speculation, but Trump may have an interest in not directly pointing to Russia as being guilty of the cable breaches, which are so serious that if they were acknowledged by Russia, they would be seen as an act of war directed against specific NATO countries, including Sweden.
The information leaked to the Washington Post could be an attempt to reduce the level of conflict in a sensitive situation. An attempt to show Putin that the US has good intentions in trying to bring about negotiations on Ukraine.
Finnish security reporter Lauri Nurmi from the newspaper Iltalehti expressed the idea in Sveriges Radio's magazine Medierna that in the current situation with a newly elected American president, it may be sensitive to directly point out Russia as guilty.
Carrots and sticks
For Trump, it is important to create an environment where he can use both carrots and sticks to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Zelensky is already on board.
This is of course speculation, but Trump may have an interest in not directly pointing to Russia as being guilty of the cable breaches, which are so serious that if they were acknowledged by Russia, they would be seen as an act of war directed against specific NATO countries, including Sweden.
The information leaked to the Washington Post could be an attempt to reduce the level of conflict in a sensitive situation. An attempt to show Putin that the US has good intentions in trying to bring about negotiations on Ukraine.
Finnish security policy reporter Lauri Nurmi from the newspaper Iltalehti puts forward in Sveriges Radio's magazine Medierna the idea that in the current situation with a newly elected American president, it may be sensitive to directly point to Russia as the culprit.
Otherwise, it is difficult to understand why Western intelligence sources would suddenly spread a picture of the cable breaches that goes against what both NATO and many governments claim.
Creating uncertainty
The difficult thing about the cable breaches is to prove that they are really sabotage. This requires a motive and a client. That type of evidence is unlikely to be found on board ships.
The very point of hybrid warfare is precisely to sow confusion about what is happening. We can suspect that Russia is behind it, but without proof we cannot be completely sure. Perhaps Russia itself has planted information that should point in a different direction.
Theoretically, it could be the West damaging the cables with the intention of blaming Russia in a so-called false flag operation.
Hybrid warfare provides a perfect breeding ground for various conspiracy theories.
The cable breaches have so far not caused any widespread problems in the countries affected. But they contribute to creating anxiety and uncertainty. A feeling that we have difficulty protecting ourselves.
It is a cheap way to wage war without having officially declared any war.
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