How many people can the earth support?

Wolfgang Hansson  

Published: Yesterday 21.00  

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.  

11,000 Indian folk dancers in an attempt to break the world record for the largest folk dance performance. Photo: Anupam Nath/AP  

COLUMNISTS 

India soon overtakes China as the world's most populous country. 

In total, the two countries are home to three of the world's eight billion inhabitants.  

Earth's population continues to increase to 10-11 billion before it reaches its peak.  

Can our globe withstand so many people?  

The question is perhaps not as controversial as when SVT's Agenda 2012 formulated the question "How many immigrants can Sweden tolerate?", but it is perceived by many as a culpability of people in poor countries who give birth to many children. 

At the same time, it is a question that is becoming increasingly relevant to ask the more people we have on the planet at the same time as humanity faces the challenge of dealing with the climate threat in a way that means that even future generations can have a tolerable life. 

The problem is that the question cannot really be answered. 

It all depends on what imprint the people who populate the planet make. Then it's not just about emissions. The more people we become, the larger areas of nature we claim at the expense of animals and plants. Biodiversity and thus the entire ecosystem are threatened.  

It is no secret that the rich population of the world, to which the entire Western world belongs, uses far more of the earth's resources than the poor. The paradox is that when we try to lift people out of poverty, their climate footprint increases. 

The UN Popolation Fund writes in its latest raport that of the world's eight billion people, 5.5 billion earn so little that they do not significantly increase carbon dioxide emissions.  

The rich emit more  

At the same time, it is clear that China, which lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, has greatly increased its emissions. It is today the world's largest emitter overall and number two after the United States if you count historical emissions.  

So what happens when India goes the same way?  

The UN's latest population report estimates that India will overtake China as the world's most populous country towards the end of June. Can't be more precise than that. India's last census was canceled due to the covid pandemic and the previous one was conducted in 2011.  

According to the UN, India's total GDP is today at the same level as France and Great Britain. Countries with only around 65 million inhabitants compared to India's nearly 1.5 billion. But we are already seeing very rapid economic development in India. If the country succeeds as well as China, incomes will rise steeply and thus also the residents' impact on consumption and the climate.  

GDP per capita in China is today approximately SEK 130,000 per year compared to India's 26,000.  

When every Indian wants to get a car, we can hope that the internal combustion engine has been phased out for good. Otherwise there will be problems.  

Then the population doubled  

When the standard of living rises, we live longer. That's a good thing. But at the same time it contributes to increasing the number of people who populate the planet in any given situation.  

If you look at it historically, the human race has made an almost improbable journey during the approximately 300,000 years that scientists estimate that we have existed. In the beginning we were so few that it took 35,000 years to double the population. In the 16th century, that process took only 300 years. Reaching the first billion in 1805 took several hundred thousand years. The increase from seven to eight billion took just over ten years.  

Today, population growth has stopped in many countries, but overall we still continue to grow. The calculations vary a little, but around 2070-80 we will reach what the researchers believe will be the peak with 10-11 billion inhabitants.  

In 2050, the UN estimates that just eight countries in Africa and Asia (Congo Kinshasa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Pakistan and the Philippines) will account for half of the world's population growth. This poses enormous challenges in a number of areas.  

While we can reduce the effects of climate change by stopping the use of fossil fuels, it is much more difficult to influence population development other than at the margin. Countries like China and India have tried. India through forced mass sterilization campaigns and China with its rigid one-child policy. Refuses to give birth to more Both failed in different ways. In China, it became legal to have two children in 2015. Now it is three children that apply. 

India through forced mass sterilization campaigns and China with its rigid one-child policy.

Refuses to give birth to more  

Both failed in different ways. 

In China, it became legal to have two children in 2015. Now it is three children that apply. But Chinese women no longer want to give birth to so many children. In practice, many settle for one, which means that China instead risks having problems with a declining population.  

Last year was the first time in decades that China's population declined. You are not alone. Even in countries such as Russia, Japan and South Korea, the population is decreasing.  

The only effective way to achieve adequate population growth in the long term has proven to be to increase prosperity and get women into the labor market. The researchers' ideal is about two children per woman. Then enough children are born so that the population does not decrease and to ensure that there are people who can take care of the elderly.  

Globally, the birth rate has decreased from roughly 5 children per woman in 1960 to 2.44 in 2020. So the trend is going in the right direction if you worry about us becoming too many.  

The only question is whether it goes fast enough. Regardless, there's not much we can do about it.