Russian Invasion|Russian Reactions What actually happened? And what happens now?

 

Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Rostov-on-Don, fire at oil depot in the city of Voronezh, Putin addresses the nation. TT  

 

The Russian Invasion|The Wagner Rebellion  

Russia connoisseurs "scratch their heads" after days of chaos  

 

What actually happened? And what happens now? There are many questions after the dramatic day on Saturday when the Wagner Group marched at high speed towards Moscow to suddenly retreat.  

 

Even experienced Russia experts have a hard time figuring out all the tricks, says Steve Hall, former head of the CIA's Russia operations, to CNN. 

 

- Everyone is scratching their heads [...] the only explanation I can see is that two guys got into a situation that was unsustainable and had to find a way out.  

 

For Vladimir Putin, an agreement to send Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin abroad was a better solution than letting the army fight bloody battles in the streets outside Moscow. And for Prigozhin, an attack on the capital was never an option, believes Seth Jones of the think tank CSI. 

 

- Putin and his top generals had been given time to prepare and if they had decided to crush the rebellion, Prigozhin would have felt the full power of the Russian military, he tells the Wall Street Journal.  

 

  

Wagner soldiers leave the Russian city of Rostov-na-Donu on Saturday evening. AP 

 

Russian Invasion|Russian Reactions  

Future uncertain for Wagner - anger at Prigozhin after aborted Moscow march  

 

Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been granted a free loan to Belarus, but the Wagner boss is still living dangerously after his one-day rebellion. This is what Russia expert Jill Dougherty tells CNN. 

 

- Putin does not forgive traitors, she says, adding that Prigozhin is at risk of being assassinated.  

 

Prigozhin's position in his own ranks is also weakened, writes the American think tank ISW. They make the interpretation that Prigozhin had hoped for more defections among the top of the Russian Ministry of Defense. When the support failed, he had to make a deal with the government, and what now happens to the Wagner group is very unclear. 

 

"Prigozhin is said to have disappointed many Wagner soldiers and Wagner-loyal ultra-nationalists by not completing the march to Moscow," ISW writes in its update on Sunday morning.  

 

Members from Wagner at the Russian city of Rostov. AP  

 

Wagner uprising may increase inflow to safe havens  

 

Saturday's uprising by the paramilitary Wagner group kept the world, and investors, on edge. Some expect an influx into safer asset classes when the markets open, economists told Reuters.  

 

According to Quincy Krosby, chief strategist at LPL Financial, this weekend's dramatic developments in the war could lead investors to turn to government bonds, gold and the Japanese yen. 

 

- The market usually does not respond well to events that are ongoing and uncertain, especially regarding Russia and Putin, Krosby told the news agency.  

 

Other economists believe that Wagner's one-day uprising will not have a particularly large impact on the stock market and other markets, since the most critical situation seems to be over.  

 

A resident of Rostov-na-Donu takes a selfie with Yevgeny Prigozhin before the Wagner leader's departure. AP 

 

Wagner hailed as heroes by civilians in Russia - now they are returning to Ukraine  

 

Paramilitary group Wagner left Rostov-na-Donu in southwestern Russia on Saturday night, less than a day after taking control of the defense headquarters.  

 

A clip circulating online shows civilians applauding and cheering as the mercenaries are bussed out of the city. The clip has been verified by the BBC.  

 

According to the settlement with the Russian government, all participants in the armed rebellion go free from prosecution.  

 

The settlement also means that the Wagner forces return to the battlefield in Ukraine. Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus. What he will do there is not known.  

 

The NSA headquarters in Fort Mead, Maryland. Patrick Semansky / AP 

 

Sources: The US knew the rebellion was underway 

 

The US was prepared for the Wagner group planning an armed rebellion against the Russian defense leadership. High-ranking US politicians and the military were briefed on the intelligence as early as Wednesday, sources told the New York Times. The next day, a small circle of congressmen were briefed.  

 

According to the Washington Post, US intelligence began to suspect that Wagner was planning an armed action in mid-June.  

 

The US chose to keep quiet about the suspicions, as it was believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would accuse them of plotting a coup. 

 

Police in Moscow during Saturday. AP 

 

Continued high alert in Moscow after the uprising  

 

There is still high alert in the Russian capital, Moscow, the day after the Wagner group's armed uprising. The "anti-terror regulations" that were instituted on Saturday are still in place and Monday is still a day off, writes AFP. 

 

Residents are also asked to stay at home as much as possible.  

 

In the million-dollar city of Rostov-na-Donu, which the Wagner soldiers left during the night, traffic is said to be rolling on as usual. Several of the roadblocks that were set up in southern Russia have been lifted.