The deal could be the end for Wagner

Russia  

The Theory of the Rebellion: An Attempt to Save the Wagner Group 

 

Niklas Gustafsson  

 

Updated 15:02 | Published at 11:33 am  

 

News  

 

The agreement with Lukashenko could be the end of the Wagner group.  

 

In exchange for avoiding prosecution, Prigozhin may be stripped of control of the private army. 

 

"Part of the Wagner Group may be subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Something Defense Minister Sjojgu has wanted for a long time," ISW writes.  

 

The Wagner  group's march towards Moscow to "investigate the chaos in Russia" suddenly stopped.  

 

An agreement had been concluded with the help of the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko - an agreement that could be the end of the Wagner group, according to the think tank Institute for the study of war.  

 

"The agreement deprives Prigozhin of control of the Wagner group, in exchange for the charges of rebellion and treason being dropped," writes ISW.  

 

 

  

The Wagner Group was met by supporters in Rostov-na-Donu on Saturday evening. 1 / 2Photo: AP  

 

Can become part of the Russian defense 

 

If the deal is implemented as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov presented it, parts of the Wagner group could be incorporated into the Russian military.  

 

"Something Defense Minister Sjojgu has wanted for a long time," writes ISW. 

 

At the same time, ISW writes that parts of the private army may remain, but then in other forms and probably not under Prigozhin's rule. 

 

Alexander Lukashenko. Photo: Mikhail Klimentyev / TT NEWS AGENCY 

 

A threat to Prigozhin's survival  

 

The choice to turn against the military leadership and go towards Moscow, according to ISW, may be connected to the Russian demand that Wagner should subordinate himself to the Russian military.  

 

ISW believes that Prigozhin may have seen the demand as an "existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival".  

 

Rather than losing the Wagner group to the Russian military, the armed uprising may have been an attempt to change the military leadership.  

 

The Wagner leader also accused Defense Minister Sergej Sjojgu of planning to destroy the Wagner group. Now parts of the group may end up under his command instead.