The expert on the French decision: "Best check"

France

After the terrorist act in Moscow - France raises the threat level: "Have the best control"

Noam Bertling

Updated 14.45 | Published 13.09

This weekend's terror attack in Moscow raises questions about the level of threat across Europe.

On Sunday,France raised its terror threat level to the highest.
 
- It is interesting, because it is the French intelligence services that have the best control of the jihadist networks, says Hans Brun, an expert on terrorist threats at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
 

Quick version

• The US warned Moscow of a possible terrorist attack two weeks before the attack. According to terrorism researcher Hans Brun, this means that the authorities had concrete reasons and that global cooperation in intelligence work is crucial to combating terrorism.
• Brun suggests that Russia's actions after the US warning may have been influenced by pride, misinterpretations of the information or other unknown factors. The conflict in Ukraine complicates cooperation between Russia and other countries.
• Sweden's current terror threat level will continue to be reviewed and evaluated continuously, but a reduction is unlikely in the near future. Brun reassures that the Swedish authorities have good insight into potential terrorist threats.

The weekend's terrorist attacks have led France to raise its terror threat level to the highest. The US's early warning of the act also raises questions about the cooperation between countries' intelligence services. According to Säpo, Sweden has close cooperation with other countries.

A French soldier at the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Photo: Michel Euler / AP

Since August 2023, Sweden's terror threat level has been at a four on a five-point scale. It is unclear how the latest events affect the terror threat level, says Hans Brun.

- It will not be lowered soon, but it is continuously evaluated. If they find something, they will go out with something.

After the terrorist attack in Moscow, France raised its terror threat level to the highest.

- It is interesting, because it is the French intelligence services that have the best control of the jihadist networks, says Hans Brun.

French President Emmanuel Macron told French Le Figaro today that the same IS group that carried out the attack in Moscow had tried several times before in France.

- We have offered the Russian services, as well as our partners in the region, increased cooperation, said Emmanuel Macron.

Hans Brun, expert on terrorist threats. Photo: Björn Lindahl

Hans Brun says that cooperation between different countries' intelligence services is important to combat terrorism.

- There are special contact routes that are manned around the clock. We have that in Sweden too. It is important for information exchanges.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP

FACTS

The assassination in 5 points

1. Terrorist  attacks in Moscow: An attack was carried out on a concert venue in Moscow on March 22, 2024, in which at least 133 people were killed
2. Perpetrators: The attack was carried out by people dressed in camouflage and armed with automatic weapons. They opened fire on concertgoers and set fire to the venue
3. IS: The Islamic State (IS) terror group has claimed responsibility for the attack and a film said to show the attack has been published 
4. Warnings: The US had previously warned of a potential attack by IS and has intelligence that proves IS was behind the attack USA hade tidigare varnat för en potentiell attack från IS och har underrättelseuppgifter som styrker att IS låg bakom attacken
   
5. The actions of the Russian authorities:The actions of the Russian authorities: Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that the perpetrators tried to flee to Ukraine and has promised that all those involved will be punished. Russian authorities claim to have arrested all the people who carried out the attack
   

"Russia may have felt humiliated"

According to Hans Brun, the cooperation in Europe and other parts of the Western world works well. But that doesn't mean they're perfect.

- It is another matter when the recipient country has to assess the information as credible. That's when you can make mistakes: misinterpret the information, not take it seriously, or that you have other tasks, says Hans Brun.

- It is trickier to cooperate with Russia because of the war in Ukraine, he continues.

Two weeks before the terrorist attack in Moscow, the US Embassy in Russia issued a warning to the residents in Moscow. Residents were to "avoid crowds" and "be aware of their surroundings".

- The authorities do not warn unless there is a real reason, says Hans Brun.

The reason why the terrorist act in Moscow was carried out despite the previous warning from the US is difficult to say.

- It could be that Russia felt humiliated by the US, they might have assessed the information differently. But it's hard to say, says Hans Brun. 

 

 

Image from inside the concert hall during the terrorist act. Photo: Astra / AP

Must share information

Exactly how the US had received the information before the terrorist act in Moscow is today unclear, but the fact that they shared it was accepted - they had to do it.

- The American system is based on a series of principles, including that terrorism is seen as a violation of human rights. According to American law, you also have to notify other countries, says Hans Brun.

- Sweden has roughly the same principles, he continues.
 

Photo: Sergei Vedyashkin / AP
 

Säpo: Sweden a legitimate target

Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg, press spokesperson at Säpo, says that Sweden has a very intensive exchange of information with other western countries.

- We work extremely intensively, all year round and around the clock, to ward off the threats and take the measures that we have the opportunity to do, he says.

Sweden's terror threat level will not be raised in the short term, he says. This is because the system in Sweden has a more "long-term and strategic" system.

- For Säpo, it does not matter which assessment we have. An attack is just as dangerous regardless, so from that perspective we work hard regardless of the level, says Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg.

- Sweden is a legitimate target for violent Islamism. This is more of a normal situation, he continues.
 

Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg, press secretary at Säpo. Photo: Security Police

No need to worry

But there is no need to worry, says Hans Brun. The important thing is to follow the news and stay informed.

- The authorities work on this all the time. They have a very good understanding of potential targets.