American politics
The secret that can decide the presidential election
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 19.16 | Published 18.25
Photo: Wilfredo Lee/AP
Independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr is getting closer to the point where he will become a serious headache for both President Biden and his challenger Donald Trump.
With his surname and his outsider image, he attracts voters from both.
It could determine who wins the presidential election this fall.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr is getting closer to the point where he will become a serious headache for both President Biden and his challenger Donald Trump.
With his surname and his outsider image, he attracts voters from both.
It could determine who wins the presidential election this fall.
Quick version
The only thing we know for sure is that it won't be Kennedy Jr. It doesn't help that yesterday he named wealthy lawyer and tech entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan as his running mate. She was previously married to Google's founder.
Kennedy has no chance but can still set the hook for the two main competitors. The only question is which of them loses the most from his candidacy.
On a national level, a recent opinion poll shows that he has the support of 13 percent of American voters. It's kind of uninteresting.
What matters is how many people will vote for him in the expected swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
There, the margins between Trump and Biden will be so small that a third candidate who enters and "steals" votes can tip the balance in their favor.
The only question is which of Biden and Trump loses the most from Kennedy's presence.
Kennedy is an outsider but at the same time a centrist candidate. He is a vaccine skeptic, wants to break up the big tech companies and banks and reduce the US military presence abroad.
Both Republicans and Democrats can be attracted by his message, which in practice paints the "elite" as a danger to the United States.
Kennedy has no chance but can still set the hook for the two main competitors. The only question is which of them loses the most from his candidacy.
On a national level, a recent opinion poll shows that he has the support of 13 percent of American voters. It's kind of uninteresting.
What matters is how many people will vote for him in the expected swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
There, the margins between Trump and Biden will be so small that a third candidate who enters and "steals" votes can tip the balance in their favor.
The only question is which of Biden and Trump loses the most from Kennedy's presence.
Kennedy is an outsider but at the same time a centrist candidate. He is a vaccine skeptic, wants to break up the big tech companies and banks and reduce the US military presence abroad.
Both Republicans and Democrats can be attracted by his message, which in practice paints the "elite" as a danger to the United States.
Donald Trump. Photo: Frank Franklin/AP
Losing the most
It is partly the same message that Trump pushed in his first election campaign and that he continues to push. This means that Kennedy is partly competing for the same voters.
But RFK Jr. can also take voters away from Biden. He originally campaigned as a Democrat with the goal of challenging Biden for the party's nomination, but Kennedy then chose to run as an independent.
The analysis of who loses the most from Kennedy's presence is made difficult by the fact that the US has rarely had a presidential election in which both main candidates were so unpopular.
I recently returned from an extended trip in the swing states where many of the voters expressed their frustration that they only have "two old men" to choose from. For many, it appears incomprehensible and proof of poverty that a nation of 350 million inhabitants cannot produce two younger and more competent candidates.
Many Democrats I spoke to do not want to vote for Biden because he is too old. They don't think he can handle the job.
Many Republicans I spoke to don't want to vote for Donald Trump because they don't want a return to the chaos that prevailed when he was president. He also has four serious charges pending against him.
In other words, it's a golden opportunity for an independent candidate who can appeal to the disaffected.
It is partly the same message that Trump pushed in his first election campaign and that he continues to push. This means that Kennedy is partly competing for the same voters.
But RFK Jr. can also take voters away from Biden. He originally campaigned as a Democrat with the goal of challenging Biden for the party's nomination, but Kennedy then chose to run as an independent.
The analysis of who loses the most from Kennedy's presence is made difficult by the fact that the US has rarely had a presidential election in which both main candidates were so unpopular.
I recently returned from an extended trip in the swing states where many of the voters expressed their frustration that they only have "two old men" to choose from. For many, it appears incomprehensible and proof of poverty that a nation of 350 million inhabitants cannot produce two younger and more competent candidates.
Many Democrats I spoke to do not want to vote for Biden because he is too old. They don't think he can handle the job.
Many Republicans I spoke to don't want to vote for Donald Trump because they don't want a return to the chaos that prevailed when he was president. He also has four serious charges pending against him.
In other words, it's a golden opportunity for an independent candidate who can appeal to the disaffected.
Joe Biden. Photo: Matt Kelley/AP
Magic touch
The American electoral system, where the winner in a state takes home all of the state's electoral votes, means that the election is in practice decided in those states where it is very even between the candidates.
In the last presidential election, Biden won in Arizona by just over 10,000 votes. The margin in his favor was about the same in Georgia. In Wisconsin there was a difference of 20,000 votes and in Pennsylvania just over 80,000.
Depending on who Kennedy takes the most votes from, that candidate is at high risk of losing one or more of those tied states.
Independent candidates have done so in several previous presidential elections. Kennedy also has the advantage of having a surname that still has a magical touch in the United States. He is the son of the assassinated former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and the nephew of the legendary President John F Kennedy.
Although politically he is hardly of the same caliber and is opposed by the family, the name has a certain appeal. Kennedy is by far the best of the independent candidates running.
However, there are some obstacles he has to overcome. To get on the ballot in every state, he must collect enough signatures. So far, he is only on the ballot in the state of Utah.
Trying to stop Kennedy
The campaign claims he has already collected enough names to run in the key states of Arizona, Michigan and Georgia, among others.
Many states require that there be a vice presidential candidate in order to register. The appointment of Shanahan also gives Kennedy a boost because she is quite wealthy and can help raise money for his campaign.
Both Biden and Trump are concerned.
The Democrats are trying to prevent Kennedy from getting on the ballot in some states.
Trump today sent out a message blasting Shanahan for being "soft on criminals."
If Kennedy had been harmless, none of them would have cared.
The campaign claims he has already collected enough names to run in the key states of Arizona, Michigan and Georgia, among others.
Many states require that there be a vice presidential candidate in order to register. The appointment of Shanahan also gives Kennedy a boost because she is quite wealthy and can help raise money for his campaign.
Both Biden and Trump are concerned.
The Democrats are trying to prevent Kennedy from getting on the ballot in some states.
Trump today sent out a message blasting Shanahan for being "soft on criminals."
If Kennedy had been harmless, none of them would have cared.
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