Huge failure for President Macron

 

  

France
Macron's catastrophic miscalculation

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 21.59

President Macron had counted on the French to heed his call and vote in the middle.

They didn't.

The result shows that it is no longer possible to scare people from voting for right-wing extremists.

Quick version

• Marine Le Pen's far-right National Assembly party became the largest party in the French parliamentary election, which could result in France getting a far-right prime minister for the first time since World War II.
• President Macron's decision to call early elections, in an attempt to scare the French from voting for Le Pen's party, proved to be a misjudgment as his unpopularity with the population became clear.
• The election may have major consequences for Europe and EU cooperation, with the National Gathering Party's EU-critical attitude and Russia-friendliness, which may lead to conflict within the EU.

It is the first time that Marine Le Pen's National Assembly has become the largest party in a parliamentary election. Quite superior as well.

Despite the opinion polls, it is a sensational result and a political earthquake. Both in France and Europe.

With around 35 percent of the vote, it is very possible that Le Pen's party can get its own majority in the French National Assembly. It will be decided after the second round of elections next Sunday.

In that case, it is the first time since the Second World War that France has a far-right prime minister.

For President Macron, it is a huge failure. It shows that his decision to call new elections prematurely was a huge miscalculation.

He did it after National Gathering won a big victory in the EU elections at the beginning of June. He felt humiliated and was prepared to bet everything on one card.

Many were shocked by his decision because he thereby invited the far-right party to take power in the French parliament.

But Macron didn't think he had a choice. His party received a landslide victory in the EU elections. He coldly calculated that he would, as several times before, succeed in scaring the French people into not voting for Le Pen's party in the parliamentary elections.

He saw it as voters showing their dissatisfaction in the EU elections but would never dare to do so in an election to the French National Assembly.

Photo: Yara Nardi / AP

Shockwave

But Macron overestimated his ability to get the population on board. He does not want to realize that he is extremely unpopular in broad layers.

This is because he had the courage to implement some unpopular reforms. Like raising the retirement age from a record low of 62 to 64. Even that is low by European standards.

But it wasn't popular.

The result is a shock not only for France but for all of Europe and above all EU cooperation.

We are used to the fact that it is the two great powers Germany and France that largely control European cooperation. It will be immensely more complicated if the National Assembly is allowed to fill the post of prime minister.

Macron will of course remain as president and control much of foreign policy, but in the long term it could seriously squeal in EU cooperation because the National Assembly believes that the EU is getting involved in far too much. The party is also basically very pro-Russia and opposes Europe's support for Ukraine.

A combination of the young and charismatic party leader Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister at the same time Hungary's Viktor Orban takes over the presidency of the EU can develop into a pure nightmare for those who want to see a democratic and cooperative EU that can deal with fateful issues such as the climate threat and Russia's imperialism.

Jordan Bardella, may become the new Prime Minister of France. Photo: Aurelien Morissard / AP

The wave of success of the extreme right

At the same time, the election is yet another sign of the enormous success of far-right and right-wing populist parties around Europe. Successes that come just a few months before another right-wing populist, or whatever you want to call Donald Trump, has a good chance of being elected president of the United States. Trump's chances have not directly decreased after President Biden's total fiasco in the debate between the two a few days ago.

Italy is already governed by a prime minister whose party has its roots in the neo-fascist movement.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany, AfD, achieved great success in the EU elections and is expected to advance strongly in several state elections in eastern Germany during the autumn.

The Netherlands is about to have a government ultimately led by anti-Islam Geert Wilders with the support of the country's large liberal center party.

In Sweden, we have the Tidö collaboration, which gives the Sweden Democrats a unique influence without them having to take political responsibility.

The left's only real success will probably come next week when Labor is expected to win the UK election. Otherwise, the right-wing wave across Europe is as massive as climate change.

There is still the possibility that the victory of the National Assembly will not be as total in the end as it looks today. In the second election round, the winning candidates in each constituency are pitted against each other, which means that there can be a lot of tactical voting.

Jordan Bardella has said he does not want to become prime minister if the party does not get its own majority.

At the same time, Macron hopes that if the National Assembly is forced to take responsibility, it will show the French people that they don't have much to contribute.

All in the hope of ruling out Marine Le Pen becoming president of France after the 2027 election when Macron is no longer allowed to run.

Marie Le Pen's National Collection looks set to become the largest party. Photo: Thibault Camus/AP