The expert's words about Wagner: “They can

The Russia expert: "They can cause a lot of misery with a few people"  

Niklas Gustafsson  

Updated 12:02 | Published at 11:56 am  

The Wagner group headed by Prigozhin has left Ukraine and entered Russia.  

Now the Wagner boss is threatening to march on Moscow.

- Meeting Prigozhin with violence will create serious bloodshed and hard-to-predict consequences, says Malcolm Dixelius.  

Prigozhin and the Wagner group have now turned their backs on President Putin and begun their march towards Moscow. 

- They can cause a lot of misery with a few people, says Russia expert Malcolm Dixelius. 

He believes that the risk of a civil war is not imminent, but it is there. At the same time, it may be possible to get Prigozhin to back down. 

- This is something that Russian oppositionists have warned about since the invasion began, the first people I met who had gone into exile I met in March a few weeks after the invasion, they said it ends with civil war, says Malcolm Dixelius.  

Putin tries to avoid confrontation  

On Saturday morning, Putin spoke about the events in a televised speech. 

- Russia is facing the toughest battle for its future, says Putin.  

He described it all as "a dagger in the back of our country and nation" and said an order had been issued to "neutralize" the rebels.  

Malcolm Dixelius believes that Putin's statements are expected. 

- He is making a desperate attempt to avoid confrontation, it is possible that Prigozhin backs down, that possibility should not be ruled out, says Malcolm Dixelius. 

Dixelius believes that what could make Prigozhin back down could be a good deal.  

- But the question is how much patience Russia has. Prigozhin has done great services, but this situation is only favorable to the opponent. So Putin is in a genuine dilemma – confronting Prigozhin with force will create real bloodshed and hard-to-predict consequences, says Malcolm Dixelius.  

        

         Malcolm Dixelius. Photo: Press photo 

“Has a large core of followers”  

According to Prigozhin, the Wagner group has around 20,000 soldiers, a large numerical disadvantage compared to the Russian units. 

- But previous coups have been settled with few people, says Malcolm Dixelius. According to Dixelius, there is a risk of a civil war, but he believes that it is not very great. At the same time, he believes that a relatively small force "can cause a lot of chaos".  

Although the support of the military leadership in Russia does not seem to be there for Prigozhin's action, popular support may be greater. 

- Prigozhin has deep-rooted popularity in Russia. People like a stickler. The intellectual middle class loathes him. But he has a large core of supporters who believe he is right, says Malcolm Dixelius. Voronezh is only 50 kilometers from Moscow.  

 

Voronezh is only 50 kilometers from Moscow.

Can get to Moscow  

According to information provided to Reuters, the Wagner Group took control of Voronezh, a city only 50 kilometers from Moscow, on Saturday morning. At the same time, Prigozhin claims that he is carrying out a "march for justice" against Moscow.  

Despite the fact that several roads to Moscow have been blocked and closed, Malcolm Dixelius believes that it is possible to get to Moscow. 

- It is dry and easy to get around, despite blocked roads. If they don't drive excessively heavy vehicles, they can get there. At the same time, it may still be possible to get the Wagner group to back down. 

- If Putin gives him a "VIP card" he might back down, but it is doubtful if Putin can give him that, says Malcolm Dixelius.  

Such a "VIP card" could mean access to ammunition and greater independence for the Wagner group.  

- And Defense Minister Sergej Shojgu's resignation. Prigozhin wants to see a personal change at the top, says Malcolm Dixelius.