The US presidential election
He has the upper hand in crucial states
Niclas Vent
Published 00.00
With days to go until the election, it's incredibly even between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
But in the seven key swing states, Trump may have made a tiny, tiny nudge.
Here's where the election is decided - state by state.
In national opinion polls, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have the support of almost exactly the same number of voters.
But it is not at the national level that the election is decided.
Instead, it is probably only 7 states where the final battle is.
In the other 43 states, the polls already seem to indicate who will win.
270 electoral votes are needed to become president, and if the outcome is as expected in all the states that are already leaning one way or the other, Harris can count on 226 electoral votes to Trump's 219.
There are 93 electoral votes from 7 states left to fight for.
Harris thus needs 44 of them to reach the magical 270, while Trump needs 51.
The most central of the 7 wave master states is voting Pennsylvania.
Harris' clearest path to victory is to squeeze Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (44 votes), just like Joe Biden did in the last election.
Trump's easiest path to the White House goes through Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia (51 votes).
But if we are to believe the opinion polls, Trump's victory may be clearer than that.
The numbers right now indicate a Trump lead in six out of seven swing states - but five out of seven states are also extremely even.
Only in Arizona (49.6–47.4) and Georgia (49.3–46.9) does Trump have a slightly larger advantage.
Here's the situation right now:
All figures come from Realclear Polling, and are tallied at 3pm on 30 October. The figures refer to a combination of 8–10 different opinion polls carried out during October.
Pennsylvania
19 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +0.6 percent (weighted 2–29/10)
Trump has held the lead in six October polls, Harris in three and two have been tied.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin went to Biden in 2020, securing his victory in the presidential election. But in 2016, all three states went to Trump, in the duel against Hillary Clinton. Pennsylvania had previously voted Democratic in six consecutive presidential elections.
Wisconsin
10 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +0.6 percent (weighted 9–29/10)
Harris has not held the lead in any of the eight October polls, but four have been tied.
Wisconsin voted for Barack Obama in 2012, but swung to Trump in 2016 and back to Joe Biden in 2020.
Michigan
15 electoral votes Advantage Harris: +0.5 percent (weighted 2–29/10)
Several October polls have shown Harris in a large lead (+4 and +5 percentage points), but several have also shown a narrow lead for Trump (+1 percentage point).
When Trump carried Michigan in 2016, victory was secured by a margin of less than 11,000 votes.
North Carolina
16 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +1.0 percent (weighted 10/9–29)
Trump has held the lead in six October polls, Harris in two and two have been tied.
Georgia
16 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +2.4 percent (weighted 5–29/10)
Trump appears to have a relatively comfortable lead. Out of 10 polls in October, none have pointed to a Harris victory in the state.
Georgia had been a solid Republican stronghold for decades (Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by a landslide in 2012) when Joe Biden took the state home in 2020. Voters then also sent two Democrats to the Senate.
Arizona
11 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +2.2 percent (weighted 5–29/10)
Trump leads in nearly every poll in the past month (8 of 9). In one CNN poll alone, Harris led by 1 percentage point.
Nevada
6 electoral votes Advantage Trump: +0.5 percent (weighted 5–29/10)
Very even. Trump leads in four polls in the past month, Harris in two and two are completely tied.
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