Therefore, it is impossible to say who will win

 

Donald Trump
Kamala or Trump - therefore it is impossible to say who will win

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 14.46 | Published 07.13
 

Quick version

• Although Donald Trump appears to be leading in several polls, his lead is within the statistical margin of error, making it difficult to predict who exactly will win the election.
• The election is extremely close in the US, with both candidates Trump and Harris' campaigns intensifying in the key swing states, where it is crucial to get their supporters to vote.
• Although people speculate using betting odds and even football results to predict the outcome, it is uncertain until all the votes are counted, which could mean a longer wait for a final election result.

Photo: Mike Stewart / AP

WASHINGTON DC. Who will win the presidential election?

With a week to go until election day, that's the question on everyone's lips.

On paper, right now things look good for Donald Trump.

But appearances are deceiving.

In all cases, his leads are so small that they are within the statistical margin of error.

As much as people want to get a sure answer in advance, there's simply no telling who will win the presidential election. An American presidential election has never been so even.

Trump's lead in national polls reported by the Real Clear Politics site is just 0.2 percent.

In the seven wave master states, he leads on average by 0.9 percent. He has the largest lead in Georgia with 2.3 percent. But even that falls within the statistical margin of error.

Still, the general feeling here in the US seems to be that Trump is the closest to victory.

It is based on the fact that, after all, he advanced a little in the opinion polls while Harris lost. But even Trump's successes are within the margin of error.

There are also other opinion polls, such as the Washington Post, which show Harris narrowly leading nationally and in three of the seven swing states.

Proof of how even it is is that both candidates are still campaigning in all the swing states.

No state is lost. But no one is won either. Therefore, it is important to enthuse one's own supporters in all the states where the election is actually decided. Other states are already given in advance due to the electoral system in the USA.

The election campaign is now entering its final sprint. Both candidates are increasing their already high campaign pace even further. Often with 3-4 election meetings in one day in different states.

Kamala Harris during a campaign rally Photo: Paul Sancya/AP

An army of celebrities

They also have an army of politicians and celebrities supporting them who are also out campaigning alongside the obvious vice presidential nominees Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance.

Both Michelle and Barack Obama have appeared several times on behalf of Kamala Harris.

For Trump, billionaire Elon Musk is one of the big draws.

It's not so much about winning new voters as getting your own supporters to actually go and vote. Election day is on a weekday when people are working.

When I was at a campaign rally with Donald Trump in Pennsylvania the other night, he tried to get the audience to make a promise that it will actually vote.

Because in this election more than in any previous one in the United States, the front lines are already drawn. Those who like Trump have already made up their minds and cannot be persuaded.

The same goes for those who dislike Trump and have no real alternative but Kamala Harris.

Whoever succeeds best in getting their voters out on election day and during advance voting is the one who ultimately emerges victorious.

Since it is not possible to point out a winner by relying on opinion polls, many people look at the betting companies' odds. Most people are betting that Trump will win. But even those odds are not so superior that one can be sure.

Soccer tracks victors

The betting companies are usually good at pointing out winners in political elections. But it also happens that they are wrong. The risk naturally increases the more even the election is.

But there are also other ways for those who want to predict the future.

The other night I was sitting in a sports bar in Charlottesville, Virginia. An American football game between the Washington Commanders and the Chicago Bears was shown on the television screens.
We had just sat down when suddenly a violent cheer broke out. People went crazy.

Washington had made a miracle turnaround in the final seconds of the game. The quarterback threw a so-called "Hail Mary" pass towards the opponents' end zone. A pure pass of chance. Players from both teams jumped in the air to catch the ball, but it bounced to a Washington player who was completely free and able to score a touchdown. Washington won its last match before the presidential election.

Over the years, it has become a way to predict the presidential election.

If Washington wins the last home game before Election Day, it usually means that the party holding the presidency wins the election. This has been the case in 17 of the last 20 presidential elections.

Which in that case means that Kamala Harris will be victorious next Tuesday.

HD named winners

But that theory also has a catch. It has been true for many years, but in the last three elections, the result of the football match has not pointed out the correct winner of the election.

Also, the quarterback's initials are J D, just like Trump's vice president. Maybe it means something?

So just realize that we won't know who wins the election until the morning of November 6 Swedish time at the earliest. If it is as smooth as predicted, it may well be a few more days before we know.

In 2000, when I covered my first presidential election on the spot in the United States, it took several weeks before the winner was chosen. That time the Supreme Court gave the presidency to George W Bush.