Armageddon made worse by water

Los Angeles
“Armageddon” in Los Angeles is just the beginning

Jonathan Jeppsson

Published 17.02

“California stands on the threshold of a new reality,” writes Jonathan Jeppsson. Photo: Ethan Swope / AP

What is behind the violent fires in the Los Angeles area?

Paradoxically, it could be about – too much rain.

But the underlying cause is due to climate change – and that is where California stands on the threshold of a new reality.

On Tuesday morning, there was no fire anywhere – two days later, thousands of homes have been destroyed and several people have died in the luxurious suburb of Pacific Palisades. Aftonbladet’s correspondent Magnus Sundholm called the situation an “Armageddon”.

The warnings of extremely strong winds were the only sign that something could happen.

The rapid progress of the fire has, however, shocked residents of the Los Angeles area, who are normally relatively prepared for severe fires.

But this year? Fire season normally runs from May to October?

No, not anymore.

“November, December, now January – there is no longer a fire season; it is a fire year,” says California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Los Angeles was hit by severe flooding in 2024. Photo: AP

Heavy rain

In addition to the unusually strong winds, it is paradoxically the heavy rain last year that is partly responsible for the fierce fires.

Wetter years create more vegetation, and in the drier years that follow, the large amounts of dried grass provide extra fuel for the flames.

It is the combination of these two factors — the Santa Ana winds and what is called “high fuel load” — that has created the conditions for the devastating fires that are now raging.

However, all this is just the beginning. Scientists fear that this alternation between wet and dry will become increasingly powerful as temperatures rise.

Thousands of homes have been destroyed by the fires. Photo: AP

It will get worse

And the human fingerprint is there: According to a study funded by NOAA, climate change (...) is behind the record-breaking wildfires in California. The study concludes that almost all of the increase in burned areas over the past half century is due to humans.

Things will get worse. According to a report, fires in California will increase by 50 percent by 2050.

There is also a risk that the fires themselves will reinforce the spiral: In a stable climate, forest fires occur regularly, but in a climate where the fires become more frequent and more intense, the forests can release carbon much faster than regrowth can absorb it.

And not only that – the larger and more intense fires also burn the soil itself to an extent that means it takes time for the area to recover at all.

Ten years ago, it was found that the areas that have burned have a significantly lower ability to bind carbon dioxide. Two-thirds of the carbon dioxide released from forests and soil in California came from the six percent of the state that has been ravaged by forest fires.

Insurance companies flee

Forcing them to flee will be a constant threat for the residents who have now carved out a life for themselves in the newly developed border zones between the wilderness and the city in California - these homes are now fueling themselves as the megafires rage.

Some who have already withdrawn are the major insurance companies, whose flight is about to create an insurance crisis in the state. The risk of fires means that California is now exposed to potential damages worth almost. $458.billion, a figure that has tripled in just five years.

It is reported that 80 percent of Americans do not have adequate home insurance.

It is called ”bluelining”: when companies and institutions start raising prices or completely withdrawing services from high-risk areas from an environmental perspective - and it hits the poor the hardest.

It is the foretaste of a new world, where both the physical and economic burden of a changing climate will be placed on those least equipped to deal with it.