Trump's cold shower - "not ready, not under any conditions"

Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Expert: "Putin not ready for serious peace negotiations"

Joachim Kerpner

Updated 23.10 | Published 22.58

Quick version

• Putin is not ready for serious negotiations despite internal pressure to consider a ceasefire.
• Ukraine is unwilling to make major concessions, which makes negotiations difficult.
• Donald Trump's ability to mediate in the conflict is being questioned due to a lack of planning and understanding.

         

          Ukrainian soldiers train near the front. Photo: AP

The situation looks bleak when Trump tries to end the war in Ukraine.

This is the opinion of the independent Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky:

- Putin is not ready for any serious negotiations, not even on conditions that are favorable to him.

First, Donald Trump talked about ending the war in Ukraina in 24 hours. Now he says it will be about six months.

But several experts interviewed by the exiled Russian magazine Important Stories believe that it will be difficult to get Putin to sign a peace agreement, since he sees that the Russian army has the upper hand on the battlefield and is steadily advancing, albeit slowly.

            

          

          1 / 2Photo: AP

The independent Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, labeled a “foreign agent” by Russia and now living in the Czech Republic, says:

“In Putin’s entourage, there is a fairly large group that is trying to convince him that Russia needs at least a ceasefire. But I am convinced that Putin is not ready for any serious negotiations about ending the war on any terms whatsoever, not even on terms that are favorable to him.

Emily Harding, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, agrees:

– Putin believes that the war is going his way, and he sees little reason to agree to a peace settlement. He believes that time is on his side.

Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP

“Living in a dream world”

The Ukrainians are not prepared for major concessions either, says Ukrainian political scientist Aleksey Golobutsky to Important Stories:

– Anyone who believes in negotiations based on the demand that the Russians retreat to the 1991 borders is living in a dream world. Even to the borders that were in force on February 24, 2022. However, it would be possible to exchange some kind of part of the Kursk region that the Ukrainian army controls for, for example, the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia. The Ukrainian people are in favor of such a variant. Some of the population believes that it would be treason, but a majority is in favor of it.

Donald Trump has promised to end the war quickly. Photo: AP

“Doesn’t seem to have a plan”

Regarding Donald Trump’s plan for the upcoming negotiations, Western-based Russian historian Alexandra Filippenko says:

– It doesn’t seem like Trump has a plan. Only recently has he understood the difficulties. He still doesn’t know how to approach the negotiations himself, Filippenko tells Important Stories.

In a statement from the Kremlin on Monday, the Russian president said he was prepared to negotiate with Trump about Ukraine:

– We see his declarations about the necessity of doing everything to avoid a third world war. We welcome such an attitude and welcome the US president-elect upon his assumption of office, Putin said, according to the exiled Russian newpaper Meduza.

Photo: AP