Middle East Crisis Gaza War

Analysis: Most evidence points to Hamas saying no

A lot can still go wrong when it comes to the US peace plan for Gaza.
 This is what the BBC's Bernd Debusmann Jr writes in a quick analysis after Donald Trump announced that Israel accepts the proposal.

He calls it an "extremely complicated plan" and notes that the most central question at the moment has not been answered: What does Hamas say?

SVT's Middle East correspondent Gilda Hamidi-Nia sees it as unlikely that Hamas will say yes, since the plan includes demands that the terror group be disarmed and not allowed to hold power in Gaza.

- If they were to sign this, it would be the end of Hamas and I am not sure if they would agree to that.

New York Times Adam Rasgon shares that picture. The plan calls for all hostages to be released within three days, while there is no timeline for the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas will reject the proposal in its current form, he predicts.

A challenge for Hamas is that a key point in the proposal is that the group disarm, which the group has previously rejected, Rasgon writes.

The White House’s 20 Points for Peace in Gaza

1. Gaza should be a deradicalized, terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

2. Gaza should be rebuilt for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.

3. If both Israel and Hamas agree to the proposal, the war will end immediately. Israeli forces will withdraw to an agreed line in preparation for the release of the hostages. During this time, all military operations, including air and artillery bombardments, will be suspended. The battle lines will remain frozen until the conditions for a complete withdrawal are met.

4. Within 72 hours of Israel's public acceptance of the agreement, all living and deceased hostages will be returned.

5. Once all hostages have been returned, Israel will release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and over 1,700 Gazans who have been deprived of their liberty since the start of the war. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are returned, Israel will return 15 dead Gazans.

6. Once all hostages have been returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence and lay down their arms will be granted amnesty. Hamas members who wish to leave Gaza will be granted safe passage to recipient countries.

7. Full aid will be sent to the Gaza Strip immediately if the agreement is approved. The aid amounts will be at least in line with what was included in the humanitarian aid agreement in connection with the previous ceasefire that began in January of this year. Infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage) will be built, as well as hospitals and bakeries. Necessary equipment for removing rubble and restoring roads in the area will be brought in.

8. The aid will be distributed – without interference from any party – by the UN and the Red Crescent, together with other international organizations not associated with either Israel or Hamas. The Rafah crossing will be opened in both directions according to the same mechanism as the agreement on January 19, 2025.

9. Gaza will be given an interim transitional government in the form of a technocratic and apolitical committee, responsible for the day-to-day running of public affairs for the people of Gaza. The committee will consist of Palestinians and international experts, who in turn will be supervised by a “peace council” headed by President Donald Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The body will establish a framework for financing the reconstruction of Gaza. The Palestinian Authority will later assume control of Gaza, after completing a reform program.

10. An economic plan will be drawn up to rebuild Gaza by convening experts with experience in building modern cities in the Middle East and by taking into account existing plans aimed at attracting investment and creating jobs.

11. An economic zone will be established, with reduced tariffs and entry fees to be negotiated by participating countries.

12. No residents will be forced to leave Gaza, but those who choose to leave will be allowed to return. In addition, Gazans will be encouraged to remain in the Strip and offered the opportunity to build a better future there.

13. Hamas and other factions will have no role whatsoever in governing Gaza. All offensive military infrastructure, including tunnels, will be destroyed. Gaza will be demilitarized under the supervision of independent monitors. Gaza’s new leaders will commit to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors.

14. A security guarantee shall be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas and other groups in Gaza fulfill their obligations and that Gaza ceases to pose a threat to Israel or its own people.

15. The United States will work with Arab and other international partners to develop a temporary international stabilization force to be deployed immediately to Gaza to oversee security. The force will develop and train a Palestinian police force to serve as the long-term internal security solution. The force will also, in consultation with Israel and Egypt, strengthen border areas.

16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza, and the Israeli military will gradually hand over territory it currently occupies as the replacement international security forces establish control and stability in the Gaza Strip. A security zone will remain in place until Gaza is fully secure from terrorist threats.

17. If Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above points will continue to apply in the terrorist-free areas, which the IDF will gradually hand over to the international stabilization force.

18. An interfaith dialogue based on values ​​of tolerance and peaceful coexistence will be established, aiming to change the mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace.

19. As the reconstruction of Gaza progresses and the Palestinian Authority’s reform program is implemented, the conditions may be in place for a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and a city of their own, which is recognized as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.

20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence.

Source: TT