Without the US, the economy will grind to a halt – now Europe must rethink
Updated 08.45 | Published 07.21
With Donald Trump's threat against Denmark, the US has gone from being Europe's friend to something else.
At the same time, our economy is completely dependent on US tech giants and financial companies.
It is no longer sustainable.
Are you one of those who feel a little depressed when you read news about the world situation?
Calm down – it is completely normal.
According to Swiss psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross' classic model for how people react to a major loss, grief follows five phases: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
This is also how it has been among many European politicians over the past year. The old US no longer exists and it has taken time for this to sink in.
Now it seems that acceptance is here. In recent days, the tone has been raised against the USA, including in a joint statement on Greenland by Europe's top leaders.
With its intervention in Venezuela and escalating threats against Denmark, the USA has not only put the old world order through the shredder. The country now poses a concrete threat to one of Sweden's neighboring countries.
As my colleague Johan Mathias Sommarström writes, it is no longer a question of if but when the USA takes over Greenland. Military aggression cannot be ruled out, according to official statements from the White House.
Is a nation that is prepared to take over the territories of European countries by force or threat of force to be considered a reliable friend? It is very difficult to answer that question with an honest yes.
And if the USA cannot be trusted, it changes everything.
The starting point is problematic.The starting point is problematic. Europe's dependence on the United States is enormous.
It's not just about defense, where the United States' support for Ukraine in the war against Russia is crucial.
It's mainly about the economy.
The United States is Europe's most important trading partner, a relationship that has already been put under pressure with Donald Trump's tariffs. But that's just the beginning.
According to an analysis by the Swiss company Proton earlier this year, 74 percent of Europe's listed companies depend on American tech giants for critical IT infrastructure. In the Nordic countries, including Sweden, the figure is over 90 percent.
90 percent is also the proportion of all European data that is stored with American cloud services such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon.
The social media market is almost entirely controlled by American companies; Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, Snapchat.
The most widely used AI services such as ChatGPT also come from the US.
Our mobile phones run on operating systems from either Google or Apple.
A large part of our pensions are invested in US assets.
The US card companies Visa and Mastercard have over 90 percent of the payment volume in Europe.
The Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen warned in an interview that the latter is a dependency that entails risks and that it would be good to have European or Swedish alternatives.
The US dollar is the completely dominant currency in the world economy and on the financial market. Without access to dollars in times of crisis, Swedish banks would quickly run into problems.
In the past, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has helped, but it is not a given that it will next time.
We have literally put a large part of our lives in the hands of the US.
It suddenly appears risky. And makes Europe weak and vulnerable.
Trump's power is not eternal and American politics can swing quickly. But that is not something that can be taken in advance.
Steps have already been taken in the EU to reduce dependence on the US, not least in IT infrastructure. Going to China is of course out of the question.
But building up something that even resembles digital independence will take a long time.
The products of American companies are also popular for a reason – they are better than the alternatives.
It is not just about cutting ties. The US's dominance is also a reflection of Europe's failure to develop its own IT companies.
The US has the strongest hand, but Europe also has a few cards up its sleeve.
The US economy is based on the country being able to borrow money and Europe is a major buyer of US government bonds.
And the Dutch company ASML has a world monopoly on equipment for manufacturing microchips. If exports to the US were to be stopped, Nvidia would not be able to deliver its chips, the AI boom would come to a standstill and drag down both the stock market and the US economy.
ASML is described as Europe's “secret weapon” in an article in the Guardian by Johnny Ryan, an Irish IT expert at the organization Enforce, which wants to reduce the power of the tech giants.
However, unleashing this weapon would also hit Europe hard.
Not long ago, even talking in terms of dangerous US dependence and economic warfare would have seemed slightly deranged.
And hopefully the conflict over Greenland can be resolved diplomatically.
But it is clear that scenarios that were previously completely unthinkable are now very much possible.
To turn a blind eye to this is to continue living in denial.
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