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Archive image. Forest fire in the wake of El Niño. Fernando Vergara / Ap  

 

The Fed vs Inflation  

Bank chill and El Niño can push down soft landing  

 

Fed chief Jerome Powell says the US can avoid a recession - but banks, politics and weather mean the odds are against him. According to Bloomberg, the economy needs to overcome three major obstacles if Powell's scenario of a soft landing is to be fulfilled.  

 

The first challenge is the ongoing banking frenzy, which is expected to lead to reduced lending which could hit small businesses and the real estate sector hard.  

 

The stalemate in Washington over the debt ceiling is another potential powder keg. If the US government is forced to suspend its interest payments, the financial effects could reach the same magnitude as the 2008 financial crisis.  

Fedchefen Jerome Powell bedömer att USA kan undvika en lågkonjunktur – men banker, politik och väder gör att oddsen är emot honom. Enligt Bloomberg behöver ekonomin övervinna tre stora hinder om Powells scenario om en mjuklandning ska infrias.

Det första utmaningen är den pågående bankfrossan, som väntas leda till en minskad utlåning vilket kan slå hårt mot småföretag och fastighetssektorn.

Dödläget i Washington kring skuldtaket är en annan potentiell krutdurk. Om den amerikanska staten tvingas ställa in sina räntebetalningar skulle de finansiella effekterna kunna nå samma magnitud som finanskrisen 2008. 

The news agency also highlights the El Niño weather phenomenon as a wildcard in the game, with the potential to disrupt global commodity supplies and fuel inflation.  

 

The drought in Spain. Emilio Morenatti / AP  

 

Climate threatExtreme weather in Europe 

Report: Record warm April in Spain and Portugal  

 

The month of April was the hottest ever recorded in Spain and Portugal, according to the EU's climate monitoring program Copernicus. The temperature was over 30 degrees and close to 40 degrees in some places. 

 

"In addition to the southern European heat wave, above-average temperatures were observed over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is an early sign of a potential transition to El Niño conditions that often lead to warmer global temperatures," writes Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess.  

 

Temperatures were also above average in southwestern Europe, and April was the fourth warmest April, according to the Climate Monitoring Program. 

 

Image from Nyamukubi in the southern province of Congo-Kinshasa. Moses Sawasawa / AP  

 

The floods in Central Africa 

401 dead after the floods in Congo-Kinshasa 

 

The death toll from the floods that hit two villages in eastern Congo-Kinshasa last weekend has risen to 401, said Governor Theo Ngwabidje Kasi, Reuters reports.  

 

Hundreds of houses in South Kivu province are said to have been swept away by bodies of water caused by heavy rains and flooded rivers.  

 

Rescue worker Michake Ntamana told AFP that some bodies washed down from villages higher up in the mountains were buried wrapped only in leaves from the trees. "It's really sad because we don't have anything else here."