Jonathan Jeppsson Published: Less than 3 hours ago Updated: Less than 2 hours ago This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's. COLUMNISTS Heat records are falling on a conveyor belt - and already before an upcoming El Niño. The curve over the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere continues to steadily increase. At this rate, we are traveling back in time – to carbon dioxide levels that prevailed millions of years ago. Our past may well be our future. Heat records have fallen on a conveyor belt in Southeast Asia and southern Europe. During the persistent heat wave in Thailand, 45.4 degrees were measured already in April, which was a new record. In Spain the same thing – in April, 38.8 degrees was recorded in April, the highest temperature recorded in the month of April. The curve over the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere continues to steadily increase. Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration According to the Spanish equivalent of the SMHI, the country has been in a prolonged drought since the end of 2022. Many now worry that last summer's stresses with parched crops and forest fires will be repeated. - This is the worst period we have had in the last 100 years, Samiel Reyes, director of Catalonia's water authority, told CNN. In April, 38.8 degrees were recorded in Spain. Photo: Santi Donaire/AP The timing is surprising These changes do not come as a surprise to the scientists – it perfectly matches the scientific projections of how less precipitation and higher temperatures will affect Europe on a warmer planet. What surprises the researchers is the timing. This massive and prolonged drought was expected to occur regularly only in 20 years. Likewise, the new record highs for ocean temperatures are baffling to climate scientists worldwide. The sea are now warmer than ever, since the measurements began. And that already before an upcoming El Niño – the weather phenomenon that is usually followed by record temperatures globally. The yellow dot shows Another record that is broken so often that we take it for granted is that of the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere. Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Photo: Caleb Jones/AP It is measured at the observatory on the volcanic island of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, and on May 7, a yellow dot on the chart recorded 424.71 parts per million, which was 5.33 ppm higher than a year earlier. As long as emissions continue as they are today, there is one thing we can take for granted – the yellow dots moving up the scale. But what does this mean? Well, that journey into the future takes us back in history at breakneck speed. We have reached the carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere that prevailed during the Pliocene, three to four million years ago. At that time, there were no ice age cycles and the ice sheets were small. Greenland was ice-free and perhaps there was no ice in West Antarctica either. The sea level during the beginning of the Pliocene was therefore about 17 meter higher than today. 17 meters sounds bad enough – the only question is, will we stop there? 70 meters higher There is research that claims that in the highest emission scenarios we will eventually – in the middle of the next century – reach the Eocene, roughly 50 million years ago. During the Eocene, conditions prevailed that warmed the earth 13 degrees more than today, the sea level was then 70 meters higher than now. The emission scenario on which the development is based, the so-called RCP 8.5, is today considered unlikely. But that assumes that powerful feedback effects do not trigger, for example, large emissions of methane. The carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere is increasing. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg / TT Long term thinking We humans have a hard time relating to the future, we are so busy with what is happening here and now. We are governed by our short-term thinking, the evolutionarily ancient but fast system that since the Stone Age allows us to solve everyday problems in a rational way. However, the climate threat means that humans must do something incredible - lift themselves out of quick thinking and start thinking long-term. At least if we want to avoid, or at least mitigate, a trip back in time - to a world with 17 meters higher sea level than today.
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