Turkey's new government. Ali Unal / AP
Analysis: Erdogan's politics revealed by the ministerial election
The fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan chose to appoint Hakan Fidan as the new foreign minister can say something about the Turkish president's view of foreign policy, writes Paul Levin, head of the Institute for Turkish Studies, on Twitter.
The selection of Fidan, who comes from the post of head of the country's intelligence service, signals that Erdogan's foreign focus is on "secret deals" and "covert operations" rather than international cooperation and trade.
Zvi Bar'el of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz wrote in an analysis before the government presentation that Mehmet Simsek, who was appointed finance minister, could be a positive force in the post. At least at first glance. His CV is long and includes, among other things, a top job at an investment bank.
But Zvi Bar'el sees a risk of Simsek turning into one of Erdogan's puppets. Among other things, he highlights the fact that it is the Turkish central bank that controls the country's interest rate and rules for loans. And it is Erdogan's close ally Sahap Kavcioglu who is the head of the central bank.
There
will be many more insightful comments on Erdoğan’s new cabinet in the
coming days, but my very hot take on key points: Interior minister &
firebrand Soylu gone. Foreign minister Çavuşoğlu replaced by former spy
chief Hakan Fidan. Şimşek returns as Finance minister.
Expert: Headwinds will soon blow for the new finance minister
Turkey is expected to return to a more conventional economic policy after years of prioritizing growth above all else. It is clear since President Erdogan made former Merrill Lynch strategist Mehmet Simsek finance minister again.
Analysts tell Reuters that interest rates are expected to rise in the near future. In recent years, Erdogan has pushed for interest rate cuts despite rampant inflation.
Expert Emre Peker at Eurasia Group thinks that the appointment of Simsek indicates that Erdogan recognizes "the eroded confidence" in his own economic policy. At the same time, he believes that it is "unlikely" that the shift will solve the long-term problems.
- Simsek will likely receive a strong mandate early in the term, but will face political headwinds to implement his policy as the local elections in March 2024 approach.
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