Israel
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 19.23
Two arch-enemies on a collision course against each other in a deadly chicken race.
Who will fold first?
The ball is now in Israel's court, which can choose between riding the wave of sympathy and showing restraint or hitting back hard and risking setting the entire Middle East on fire.
Quick version
Iran and Israel have been dueling for decades. Iran by proxy and Israel by never publicly taking responsibility for the attacks and assassinations they carry out.
Now we have a completely new situation where Iran has directly attacked Israel for the first time. But only after Israel bombed Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1.
Both countries could now let odd be even. Both have declared themselves winners.
Instead of retaliating, some suggest Israel should try to assemble an international coalition against Iran with the aim of further isolating the religious dictatorship in Tehran. A regime that oppresses its own population and has the stated goal of wiping out the Jewish state.
Thus, Israel could take advantage of the fact that the world has, at least for the time being, suppressed the war that has been going on for the past six months in Gaza and where Israel has increasingly become a pariah in the outside world because of its warfare that has claimed so many civilian casualties.
Some observers believe that Iran made a strategic mistake by directly attacking Israel, thereby shifting the world's focus away from Gaza.
Israel has a chance to be let back into the heat if you act with restraint. Instead, it will be the ayatollahs who end up on the dock and exposed to the wrath of the world.
The ball is now in Israel's court, which can choose between riding the wave of sympathy and showing restraint or fighting back hard. Photo: Sara Ringström
Honor thinking
The US, the EU and the UN chief are among the vast majority who appeal to all parties to de-escalate the situation.
But the risk is obvious that Israel will not heed that call.
The concept of honor also dominates politics in the Middle East. Turning the other cheek is not normal.
Instead, it is the macho style that applies. You have to fight back hard against your enemy to avoid being seen as weak. The Jewish state has always been surrounded by enemies and defended its existence by projecting strength.
Not fighting back strongly goes against Israel's self-image.
Yet that is where both Israel and the rest of the world would benefit right now.
If Israel bombs Iran, for example their nuclear facilities, Iran will feel compelled to respond with new attacks on Israel.
This weekend's Iranian attack on Israel caused minimal damage as Israel, with the help of the US and other allies, managed to shoot down almost all drones and robots. But it is not certain that you will be as lucky in a new attack. Iran's extended arm in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has a large number of precision robots that can reach all of Israel in a short time.
Drone or missile fired at targets in northern Israel on Sunday night. Photo: Atef Safadi/EPA Via TT
Forgotten truth
How many revenge and retaliatory attacks can both sides carry out without the result being a major war in the region? They don't know them and neither does anyone else. But the situation can quickly get out of control.
The US has said it will not participate in an Israeli counterattack against Iran. But if Israel's existence is threatened, the United States will not sit idly on the sidelines. Biden may be dragged into a war against his will just in time for the US presidential election. Which could give Donald Trump a free chance to come back to the presidency in November.
In the constant escalation there is an inherent death spiral. When has the opponent been dealt enough damage? Is it possible to step out of the spiral when you want to?
The issues are not only interesting for Israel, Iran and the Middle East. They affect all of our futures to the highest degree. A major war in the region would have enormous consequences for us as well. Especially when it comes to increased oil prices and damage to the world economy.
As always on occasions like this, the parties send double signals. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and politician Benny Gantz, who along with Prime Minister Netanyahu make up the internal war cabinet that decides on the issue, say Iran will pay a price but that Israel will respond at a time of its choosing.
The question is what Israel learned from its response to the Hamas terrorist attack on southern Israel on October 7. Then, in wild fury, the country plunged headlong into a war with the goal of wiping out Hamas, a terror-labeled group supported with weapons and money by Iran. Six months later, the war is in many ways a failure.
Maybe there are other ways to show strength than massive violence?
At the bottom lies the unfortunately too often forgotten truth that without peace between Israel and the Palestinians, there will never be an end to the constant wars in the Middle East.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar